Two years into the Ukraine War, seeing all the grandeur with which the Russian President was sworn in for a fifth term, one is forced to consider the future of the war. The tide of the conflict is turning, and even sympathetic Western publications are beginning to question NATO’s narrative.

The failure of the “spring counteroffensive” of last year is staring blank in the face of the United States and the NATO allies. Ukraine made small territorial gains at a huge cost, and those gains were soon reversed. Call it a miscalculation or a disinterest as Russia deepened its hold over Ukrainian territories. Perhaps the US got busy by another, much more urgent war front, standing by its closest ally, Israel. It would not be wrong to say that the NATO expected a lot from the counteroffensive, and seeing it fail to dislodge the Russian hold in Donbas and Luhansk, the alliance started questioning its strategic options. The much-celebrated US military aid package for Ukraine is set to arrive in bits and pieces over the coming months and years in the case of some weapon systems, against an urgent, immediate need for resupply and reinforcement.

Two minors injured in firing

The front, reminiscent of WWI trench warfare, is in danger of collapsing. Manpower shortages for Ukraine, whose population is now resisting conscription, and ammunition shortages are complicating the defence. While for Russia, on top of its vast manpower reserves, it has come out stronger, despite sanctions, with an efficient wartime economy on one hand, and an alternate economic system that is secure from enemy attacks with China’s friendship and proximity.

Zelensky’s personal visits to NATO countries also seem to have slowed down. All this brings Russia and Putin closer to the complete victory he promised at his inauguration ceremony. This confidence is not a false pride but a reflection of the realities on the ground. Getting Crimea back from Russia is a far-fetched dream. Instead, Ukraine is losing its territories fast.

As more and more people realise the futility of this protracted war, the world should push for a negotiated settlement, rather than prolonging the war till an ideological “total victory.”

Two farmers booked over water theft