By Lee Jong-eun
lee jong eun
Last December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United States for the second time since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War.
The U.S. reception, however, was starkly different from that of Zelenskyy’s previous visit, when he received a standing ovation during his address to the U.S. Congress and reassurances for continued U.S. support against Russia’s invasion. This time, Zelenskyy’s visit failed to convince Congress to approve additional aid to Ukraine.
Over the past year, U.S. domestic politics has shown signs of fatigue toward the Russia-Ukraine War. Particularly among U.S. Republicans, there is a growing sentiment that aid to Ukraine has become costly and has diverted resources and attention from other domestic and international issues. As many Congressional Republicans and party leadership, however, still support Ukraine’s war efforts, some amount of aid to Ukraine would have likely been approved this year by the U.S. Congress if it was a stand-alone policy issue.
However, aid to Ukraine has become linked to another contentious policy issue. Congressional Republicans have demanded that the Biden administration implement stricter border control and asylum policies as conditions for approving additional aid to Ukraine.
Despite months of negotiations, the White House and Congress have failed to broker an agreement on border control policies. The Biden administration has pressured Congressional Republicans to moderate their stance through linkages with additional foreign policy issues. In October, the Biden administration requested Congress to pass $106 billion in funds, including aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
The calculation was that even Congressional Republicans critical of aid to Ukraine would not vote against an omnibus budget if it included aid to Israel and Taiwan. Congressional Republicans, however, have held to their stance that an agreement on border control policy is a prerequisite for approving additional foreign aid. As a consequence, even US aid to Israel and Taiwan has been delayed while the gridlock continues in the U.S. Congress.
Multiple policy issues frequently become linked together in the foreign policy decision-making process. During the Cold War, the Nixon administration attempted to link U.S.-U.K. intelligence and nuclear cooperation with the U.K.’s continued military presence in Southeast Asia. During the War on Terror, the Obama administration attempted to link diplomatic and economic support to several countries with the latter’s acceptance of detainees released from the Guantanamo Bay prison.
In foreign policy negotiations, the linkages of multiple issues pose a double-edged sword. A breakthrough might occur over a policy dispute thanks to a supplemental agreement over a different issue. An international environmental agreement might include free trade provisions to incentivize states and placate domestic opposition. By offering different benefits to negotiating actors with different priorities, issue linkages encourage more actors to become invested in the successful negotiation. For the advocates of U.S. aid to Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine, as well as advocates for the overhaul of U.S. immigration and border control policy, the stakes are high for achieving successful negotiations in the current U.S. Congress.
The issue linkages, however, could increase the expectations and costs from the negotiations, which poses a challenge to achieving an agreement. An agreement over a less contentious issue might be put on hold or “held hostage” until the resolution of more controversial issues linked to the former. Congressional Republicans face high expectations from their political base that they should use the Biden administration’s request for aid to Ukraine to attain significant concessions on tightening the border and migration. Subsequently, Congressional Republicans have postponed approving even aid to Israel and Taiwan, which they would have likely supported under a different circumstance, to maximize pressure on the Biden administration.
For Biden and Congressional Democrats, however, who perceive Republicans’ proposals on border control and asylum as extreme, acquiescing to the latter’s demands significantly raises the political costs of negotiations. Subsequently, the White House and Congressional Democrats also face domestic political pressure to reject Republicans’ demands, even at the risk of postponing the passage of the omnibus budget.
Several outcomes are possible when the U.S. Congress returns to session in January. First, the Biden administration might concede to most of the Congressional Republicans’ border control and asylum policy demands. Alternatively, Congressional Republican leadership, reluctant to be held responsible for the deterioration of Ukraine’s military capacity, might moderate their demands or agree to a temporary solution. Finally, the negotiation impasse could continue, forcing the Biden administration to search for alternative measures to support Ukraine.
For U.S. allies, the current gridlock over Ukraine aid is a sobering reminder that even less controversial U.S. foreign policy could become stymied by unexpected linkage to a more controversial issue. For Israeli and Taiwanese governments, it is likely frustrating that their U.S. aid is also being postponed despite enjoying greater bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress than the aid to Ukraine. In the future U.S. Congress, other controversial domestic political issues, such as gun control or abortion, could become linked to foreign policy negotiations.
If even allies favored by the U.S. can face risks from the linkages of domestic and foreign policy issues, relying on one’s strategic value alone might not be a sufficient negotiation strategy for an individual ally. If the linkages to complex, controversial issues become difficult to avoid in diplomatic negotiations, strengthening positive linkages might be the realistic countermeasure. In the long term, U.S. allies and partners should strive for collective actions to safeguard their interests within the U.S. alliance, mutually bolstering their diplomatic leverage within U.S. political negotiations. Suppose South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. becomes linked to a controversial policy issue? While I hope the ROK-U.S. “blood alliance” carries sufficient political value, I will feel safer if other U.S. allies also recognize and lobby for the value of the bilateral alliance.
Lee Jong-eun, Ph.D., is assistant professor of political science at North Greenville University.
US political gridlock over Ukraine aid: challenges of issue linkages
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02.01.2024
By Lee Jong-eun lee jong eun
Last December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United States for the second time since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War.
The U.S. reception, however, was starkly different from that of Zelenskyy’s previous visit, when he received a standing ovation during his address to the U.S. Congress and reassurances for continued U.S. support against Russia’s invasion. This time, Zelenskyy’s visit failed to convince Congress to approve additional aid to Ukraine.
Over the past year, U.S. domestic politics has shown signs of fatigue toward the Russia-Ukraine War. Particularly among U.S. Republicans, there is a growing sentiment that aid to Ukraine has become costly and has diverted resources and attention from other domestic and international issues. As many Congressional Republicans and party leadership, however, still support Ukraine’s war efforts, some amount of aid to Ukraine would have likely been approved this year by the U.S. Congress if it was a stand-alone policy issue.
However, aid to Ukraine has become linked to another contentious policy issue. Congressional Republicans have demanded that the Biden administration implement stricter border control and asylum policies as conditions for approving additional aid to Ukraine.
Despite months of negotiations, the White House and Congress have failed to broker an agreement on border control policies. The Biden administration has pressured Congressional Republicans to moderate their stance through linkages with additional foreign policy issues. In October, the Biden administration requested Congress to pass $106........
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