By John J. Metzler
We are approaching Ukraine’s second Christmas at war with Russia. Gone are the heady days and David and Goliath moments of tough and plucky Ukraine stunning the Russian bear and, against all odds and predictions, presumably turning the military tide on the aggressor.
Now the grim reality has set in. Russia has been badly bloodied but the conflict has frozen into the very stalemate which favors Moscow. A slugfest of attrition, where time stands still in the hell of a First World War-type battlefield, with a soundtrack of both thudding Russian artillery but upgraded to lethal drone strikes.
Ukraine’s much-heralded spring offensive which extended into summer should have been successful; it was sadly strategically underwhelming. This is not for lack of heroism or patriotism by the Ukrainian troops, but rather supply shortages, overstretched force commitments, wavering international support and now crisis overload since the Hamas terror attacks on Israel.
Part of the problem was that after Ukraine’s initial victories in early 2022, Western governments bought into the narrative that if Kyiv gets massive weapons transfers and munitions they will overcome a sloppy and poorly led Russian military. Proof seemed to be that since the Russians have taken hideous causalities in personnel and ordnance; they will be forced to surrender and perhaps even relinquish territorial grabs such as Crimea taken in 2014.
Furthermore, U.S. President Joe Biden fueled the optimism regularly with the mantra “for as long as it takes” as if the phrase would magically produce a positive policy outcome. Indeed given Kyiv’s initial battlefield success, American public opinion largely followed in step. After all, here was an American ally actually winning a war without the support of American boots on the ground.
Now comes the stunning military reality check. Politically, there’s a “blame Ukraine” spin cycle that says that the American and European aid is either too little to win the war, or too much to convince Kyiv to ever think about a ceasefire and peace. Significantly, embattled Vladimir Putin still has sufficient cannon fodder forces to keep this conflict churning, by drawing out Ukraine’s price in resources and blood.
A State Department Memo stresses; “Ukraine is a key regional strategic partner …? It remains an urgent security assistance priority to provide Ukraine the equipment it needs to defend itself against Russia’s war against Ukraine.” The documents adds, “To date, we have provided approximately $44.2 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked and brutal full-scale invasion against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.”
The cost of total U.S. aid to Ukraine in the past two years is officially $75 billion. That’s including $46 billion in military aid and assistance, $26 billion in support to the Kyiv government for supporting salaries and institutions, and $2.7 billion in humanitarian aid. Germany and the United Kingdom remain the two largest European donors.
The current supplemental military aid budget of $61 billion before the U.S. Congress is approximately equal to the UK’s entire annual military budget or larger than Germany’s!
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected in Washington on a Christmas charm offensive. Yet, America’s military aid underscores the largest single security commitment to any European country since the Second World War.
While the Congressional majority favors supporting Ukraine and its sovereignty, there’s a growing minority of Republicans who balk at offering the Kyiv government an open-ended blank checkbook with no discernible end in sight. Moreover, the constant supply of often scarce munitions from the American and NATO stockpile has dangerously depleted U.S. inventories.
There’s also the very real issue of linking wider Ukraine aid commitments to long overdue security protecting the United States' southern border. It’s in our national interest to do both.
Nonetheless, a recent poll by the Reagan Institute advises in an executive summary: “Three-quarters of Americans say that it is important to the United States that Ukraine wins the war against Russian aggression, including bipartisan supermajorities of Democrats (86 percent) and Republicans (71 percent).”
While diplomats instinctively speak of and demand a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, in Ukraine’s context the sentiment seems strangely mum. Recently at a function a Western ambassador privately raised this conundrum only then to quickly return to political default mode; defeat Russia, then diplomacy!
Beyond the monetary cost of the Ukraine war, there is a grueling human dimension; civilian casualties, massive internal displacements and millions of refugees which are sadly forgotten in the maze of figures and military statistics.
Putin will try to maintain the military stalemate and wait out Ukraine. Let’s keep him waiting.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China."
Ukraine: war, peace and Congress
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14.12.2023
By John J. Metzler We are approaching Ukraine’s second Christmas at war with Russia. Gone are the heady days and David and Goliath moments of tough and plucky Ukraine stunning the Russian bear and, against all odds and predictions, presumably turning the military tide on the aggressor.
Now the grim reality has set in. Russia has been badly bloodied but the conflict has frozen into the very stalemate which favors Moscow. A slugfest of attrition, where time stands still in the hell of a First World War-type battlefield, with a soundtrack of both thudding Russian artillery but upgraded to lethal drone strikes.
Ukraine’s much-heralded spring offensive which extended into summer should have been successful; it was sadly strategically underwhelming. This is not for lack of heroism or patriotism by the Ukrainian troops, but rather supply shortages, overstretched force commitments, wavering international support and now crisis overload since the Hamas terror attacks on Israel.
Part of the problem was that after Ukraine’s initial victories in early 2022, Western governments bought into the narrative that if Kyiv gets massive weapons transfers and munitions they will overcome a sloppy and poorly led Russian military. Proof seemed to be that since the Russians have taken........
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