The quote from former American President John F Kennedy about victory having a thousand fathers but defeat being an orphan went through my mind as the results of the referenda in the Irish Republic rolled in, showing a decisive rejection of the government and main opposition parties’ recommendation for a Yes vote.
When an unexpected result like this happens so decisively, the knee-jerk reaction is to look for scapegoats. The simple reality is that there is never any one reason or one leader to blame for any election defeat, even more so in a referendum.
The defeat was not about one thing. For some voters there was indifference about the issue and for others, it was a chance to kick the government over the myriad of concerns that voters have not just on this issue, but many others.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar conceded early that the government had lost the referenda vote (Damien Storan/PA)
It is also a cautionary tale for any future bids for constitutional change. Just because you have the overwhelming support of most of the political class and numerous other sectors, does not automatically mean you will be successful on polling day.
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If you cannot explain with passion and conviction the need for change and have your campaign fronted by people who convey those qualities, then you are on the road to nowhere.
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Double-digit leads in the polls can melt away like snow on a sunny day if your campaign is simply allowed to drift along with messages that do not resonate with the electorate.
I wrote a few weeks back that the Irish government should seriously consider holding a vote on extending the franchise for president. I remain of that view and that it is more than winnable should a referendum occur.
There have been calls to extend the franchise for voting for Irish president to Irish citizens outside the Republic
It can be won if those who want change look at how the government approached this most recent campaign and do the opposite.
First is making sure you have your ducks in a row before you proceed to the campaign. Is the proposition and the wording clear? Does it have the buy-in and support of all the people who you need to have on your side to achieve a win?
Second, if campaigns are about storytelling and persuasion, do you have a compelling narrative to base a campaign on? A lot of politics is not about rational decision-making but rather about emotion.
A mural in Dublin's Temple Bar area supporting a yes vote in the marriage equality referendum (Niall Carson/PA)
One of the main success stories of the repeal the 8th and marriage equality campaigns was their ability to tap into the emotional arguments for change and tell compelling stories about why this change was needed.
Lastly, ensure your campaign is not tied to the government’s fortunes. In any referendum held during a government’s term, there is a huge temptation from sections of the electorate to use any vote to punish an incumbent government.
Part of what happened last week was parts of the electorate registering their displeasure with the coalition government over a variety of different issues. Any campaign needs an administration to get a referendum underway but then be prepared to have some clear water between themselves and any government parties.
If you cannot explain with passion and conviction the need for change and have your campaign fronted by people who convey those qualities, then you are on the road to nowhere
This is not the first time a government has received a bloody nose from the Irish electorate in a referendum, although the size of the rejection is something to take note of. The reasons for this defeat are varied and the lessons from that should not be lost on anyone who wants change in other areas.
Campaigners need to remember this most invaluable truth about politics and that is that most people spend very little time thinking about it. Voters want to know why change is necessary and how is it going to impact the country. The Irish government failed miserably to make a positive case on either front during the recent referendum.
To win an Irish referendum you need some core ingredients for success. Whilst it is great to have a variety of parties on side, the electorate and not the political class ultimately decide.
Hopefully, these lessons will be well learned when other issues such as a border poll or presidential voting rights come up in the future.
How to win a referendum - and how not to
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13.03.2024
The quote from former American President John F Kennedy about victory having a thousand fathers but defeat being an orphan went through my mind as the results of the referenda in the Irish Republic rolled in, showing a decisive rejection of the government and main opposition parties’ recommendation for a Yes vote.
When an unexpected result like this happens so decisively, the knee-jerk reaction is to look for scapegoats. The simple reality is that there is never any one reason or one leader to blame for any election defeat, even more so in a referendum.
The defeat was not about one thing. For some voters there was indifference about the issue and for others, it was a chance to kick the government over the myriad of concerns that voters have not just on this issue, but many others.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar conceded early that the government had lost the referenda vote (Damien Storan/PA) It is also a cautionary tale for any future bids for constitutional change. Just because you have the overwhelming support of most of the political class and numerous other sectors, does not automatically mean you will be successful on polling day.
Kneecap: six songs to listen to first from the west Belfast trio
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