I have often been asked, “What will the EV scene be in 2030?” So I decided to take a trip to the year 2030 and see it for myself. Reports indicate that India sold more than seven million four-wheelers as compared to four million about seven years ago in 2023. This really looks attractive, but not in growth percentage terms. It works out to just around 7%, a rate at which car sales grew in 2023. What seems more attractive is the number of E-4Ws—as EV cars are now commonly called, sold in the country. In 2030, at least 20% of all new vehicles sold are powered by electricity. This means a sale of closer to 1.5 million E-4Ws against a mere 81,000 EVs sold in India in 2023.
The more important point is how it looks on the roads. Are E-4Ws a rare sight? Not at all on city roads. At least half of new vehicles bought in metropolitan centres like Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Mumbai, and other metros are running on electricity. Even in tier-two and -three cities, EVs are common, as are charging points. Highways in 2030 present enough charging spots. Many of these are fast chargers, offering the option to the EV owner to “refuel” while having coffee and snacks. Almost all shopping malls and public parking spaces in all metro and prominent towns have fast chargers. At least 40% of parking slots in high-rise residential buildings have access to chargers.
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It is estimated that more than 80% of electricity generated in India comes from renewable energy sources, which has made the critics crying hoarse on “EV is no less polluting” fall silent. There are many other factors that have changed the perception on E-4Ws since 2023. One important reason is the change in perception of consumers. Vehicles are no more mere mechanical devices taking the passenger from one place to another but have become mobility solutions, with better software, more connectivity, and naturally, more convenience. The range of EVs have gone up and the replacement cost of batteries has fallen down substantially, thanks to the lithium found in Jammu in 2022, which is being commercially mined and put to use.
Also Read Powering India’s future: Ramping up country’s renewable energy capacity Across the aisle by P Chidambaram: The soup kitchen Inside track by Coomi Kapoor: Bond of secrecy Building codes and Indian cities Clearly there have emerged a new breed of consumers apart from the one who need a vehicle merely for transportation. The younger, tech-savvy generation look for mobility solutions that helps them in their daily chores, bordering on the next phase of autonomous vehicles which are in advanced stages of implementation on many roads. The digital age by 2030 has moved over to the age of Artificial Intelligence. The AI generation understands and uses only EVs for their mobility solutions. India, one among the fastest growing global economies in the last seven years, experienced a shift towards EVs which offer mobility solutions to the aspiring car buyers in an aspiring economy leading to more upgradations to luxury e-mobility. This shift also meant that our fossil fuel import has gone down substantially and we are now “atmanirbhar” for our energy.
Travelling back in time to 2024, India’s passenger car market did not have a better opening than what was recorded in January 2024. Total sales in the first month of the year missed the 400,000 mark by a whisker. Hidden amidst such a record number is an increasing sale of EVs as well—sales in January were 9% higher than the sales in December 2023. But it is still early, judged by the E-4W market data, to state that EV sales have reached the take-off stage. The vehicles sold are mostly in the lower end of the market, indicating larger adoption of EVs in the car rental and taxi segment. In the luxury EV segment, a better indicator of EV adoption, the sales numbers are still modest, though growing.
All the manufacturers dedicated to electrification will continue on this path as pioneers. The doubters will continue to raise issues. But the customers are the kings and queens, and will opt for an electric car, especially in the luxury segment, offering a range of more than 500 kms. The early users will become brand ambassadors, thereby neutralising hesitation and worry over range per charge by sharing their personal experiences. Charging facilities require long-term investments and need volume for adequate return, as EV sale volumes cannot increase sharply without the spread of fast charging facilities. It is a classic chicken and egg situation and needs the government to come in and untie the knot. Many CPOs have now invested and the spread will widen sharply in 2024 and 2025. By 2030, thanks to proactive policies of governments which opted for tech-savvy mobility solutions for the aspiring generation, fast chargers will be readily available, given that an incremental policy shift takes place in collaboration with industry.
By 2030, EVs on highways will be a common enough sight. I am confident that the proposed plan of placing charging points on Golden Quadrilateral will catch up even on the state highways. The new grids laid out will solve a potential problem of grid collapse arising out of E-4W charging pressure. Fast chargers will be common with slow chargers moving over to residences. The change that is now at a nascent stage will see a major boost in the next phase of India’s growth. The tech savvy, environment conscious younger car-buying population in general, and women in particular, will like to enjoy the convenience of driving an EV. Their demand will open the next phase of the automobile boom with matching infrastructure growth. This trend will be most pronounced among the younger luxury car buyers in India.
Jyoti Malhotra, Managing Director, Volvo Car India
Views are personal
I have often been asked, “What will the EV scene be in 2030?” So I decided to take a trip to the year 2030 and see it for myself. Reports indicate that India sold more than seven million four-wheelers as compared to four million about seven years ago in 2023. This really looks attractive, but not in growth percentage terms. It works out to just around 7%, a rate at which car sales grew in 2023. What seems more attractive is the number of E-4Ws—as EV cars are now commonly called, sold in the country. In 2030, at least 20% of all new vehicles sold are powered by electricity. This means a sale of closer to 1.5 million E-4Ws against a mere 81,000 EVs sold in India in 2023.
The more important point is how it looks on the roads. Are E-4Ws a rare sight? Not at all on city roads. At least half of new vehicles bought in metropolitan centres like Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Mumbai, and other metros are running on electricity. Even in tier-two and -three cities, EVs are common, as are charging points. Highways in 2030 present enough charging spots. Many of these are fast chargers, offering the option to the EV owner to “refuel” while having coffee and snacks. Almost all shopping malls and public parking spaces in all metro and prominent towns have fast chargers. At least 40% of parking slots in high-rise residential buildings have access to chargers.
It is estimated that more than 80% of electricity generated in India comes from renewable energy sources, which has made the critics crying hoarse on “EV is no less polluting” fall silent. There are many other factors that have changed the perception on E-4Ws since 2023. One important reason is the change in perception of consumers. Vehicles are no more mere mechanical devices taking the passenger from one place to another but have become mobility solutions, with better software, more connectivity, and naturally, more convenience. The range of EVs have gone up and the replacement cost of batteries has fallen down substantially, thanks to the lithium found in Jammu in 2022, which is being commercially mined and put to use.
Clearly there have emerged a new breed of consumers apart from the one who need a vehicle merely for transportation. The younger, tech-savvy generation look for mobility solutions that helps them in their daily chores, bordering on the next phase of autonomous vehicles which are in advanced stages of implementation on many roads. The digital age by 2030 has moved over to the age of Artificial Intelligence. The AI generation understands and uses only EVs for their mobility solutions. India, one among the fastest growing global economies in the last seven years, experienced a shift towards EVs which offer mobility solutions to the aspiring car buyers in an aspiring economy leading to more upgradations to luxury e-mobility. This shift also meant that our fossil fuel import has gone down substantially and we are now “atmanirbhar” for our energy.
Travelling back in time to 2024, India’s passenger car market did not have a better opening than what was recorded in January 2024. Total sales in the first month of the year missed the 400,000 mark by a whisker. Hidden amidst such a record number is an increasing sale of EVs as well—sales in January were 9% higher than the sales in December 2023. But it is still early, judged by the E-4W market data, to state that EV sales have reached the take-off stage. The vehicles sold are mostly in the lower end of the market, indicating larger adoption of EVs in the car rental and taxi segment. In the luxury EV segment, a better indicator of EV adoption, the sales numbers are still modest, though growing.
All the manufacturers dedicated to electrification will continue on this path as pioneers. The doubters will continue to raise issues. But the customers are the kings and queens, and will opt for an electric car, especially in the luxury segment, offering a range of more than 500 kms. The early users will become brand ambassadors, thereby neutralising hesitation and worry over range per charge by sharing their personal experiences. Charging facilities require long-term investments and need volume for adequate return, as EV sale volumes cannot increase sharply without the spread of fast charging facilities. It is a classic chicken and egg situation and needs the government to come in and untie the knot. Many CPOs have now invested and the spread will widen sharply in 2024 and 2025. By 2030, thanks to proactive policies of governments which opted for tech-savvy mobility solutions for the aspiring generation, fast chargers will be readily available, given that an incremental policy shift takes place in collaboration with industry.
By 2030, EVs on highways will be a common enough sight. I am confident that the proposed plan of placing charging points on Golden Quadrilateral will catch up even on the state highways. The new grids laid out will solve a potential problem of grid collapse arising out of E-4W charging pressure. Fast chargers will be common with slow chargers moving over to residences. The change that is now at a nascent stage will see a major boost in the next phase of India’s growth. The tech savvy, environment conscious younger car-buying population in general, and women in particular, will like to enjoy the convenience of driving an EV. Their demand will open the next phase of the automobile boom with matching infrastructure growth. This trend will be most pronounced among the younger luxury car buyers in India.
Jyoti Malhotra, Managing Director, Volvo Car India
Views are personal
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