Two weeks before Australians voted in the Voice referendum, Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh gave his word to a senior member of the Allan government that the Coalition was committed to a treaty with First Nations peoples.
It was a private phone conversation, but his view was unequivocal: despite the Voice appearing doomed, the Coalition still backed the treaty negotiations between the state and Aboriginal groups.
Opposition Leader John Pesutto has made little political gain from the state Coalition’s backflip on a treaty with Indigenous Victorians.Credit: Penny Stephens
Fast-forward two weeks, his commitment started to waver.
On Sunday, Walsh finally let the public in on the Coalition’s thinking from that time, revealing that the shadow cabinet had last year agreed to withdraw its support.
“Things have changed,” he said.
In the five days since Walsh was sent out to announce the policy backflip – ostensibly a win for the Coalition’s base – the Opposition Leader John Pesutto has struggled to justify the move, and consequently failed to leverage any potential political capital from the decision.
Nor did he offer up any policy alternative to help close the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Victorians, which may have appeased moderate voters.
Addressing the media on Monday, Pesutto brought up concerns about the state’s cultural heritage laws, a genuine policy area where a more effective opposition could push for clear reforms. He also raised concerns about secrecy of treaty negotiations, while simultaneously refusing to reveal when his frontbench made the policy flip.
What Pesutto didn’t say was that the decision to walk away from supporting the treaty was inextricably linked to the defeat of the Voice vote and made shortly after the referendum failed in October.
The Voice never had much support in the Coalition party room, but its wider defeat – particularly in Victoria – was the trigger Coalition MPs needed to call for a rethink. Had Pesutto been more transparent at the time, he would have had political cover from the Queensland opposition, which also withdrew bipartisan support for a treaty process, and the NSW Labor government, which agreed to reassess its position.
Instead, they left it until Sunday, sending out Walsh to reveal a months-old shadow cabinet decision during an afternoon TV interview, without first discussing it with backbench MPs or stakeholders.
All part of a strategy, we are told, which took three months to concoct.
The Coalition’s decision wasn’t based on the Voice result alone, with ongoing concerns about the recommendations from the Yoorrook Justice Commission – which called for an overhaul of the state’s criminal justice and child protection systems – also sitting uncomfortably with Coalition MPs.
Regional MPs had also started to express concerns about the state’s cultural heritage laws, which aim to protect Aboriginal cultural heritage sites, after the Western Australian government axed its laws that handed considerable power to groups referred to as Local Aboriginal Cultural Heritage groups.
Pesutto, a No voter, has long been unconvinced by the Coalition’s treaty position and wasn’t among those in the partyroom who had agreed to back Labor’s legislation. But perceptions matter in politics and despite supporting the policy reversal, the Coalition’s leadership team have appeared fearful and unconvinced by their own decision.
Aside from the trouble this could create for Pesutto in his inner-Melbourne seat of Hawthorn – where voters overwhelmingly supported the Voice proposition – his inability to articulate a clear reason for the policy reversal means he has been unable to gain any much-needed support from the party’s base.
As one Liberal MP observed: “If you think there is political gain, then go out and own it.”
The curious timing has also renewed pressure on the leadership of the parliamentary Liberal team just one week out from a messy defamation case in the Federal Court between Pesutto and ousted Liberal Moira Deeming.
Leadership talk was already red-hot over summer, with a number of frontbench MPs – and future leadership aspirants – catching up in private, apparently to discuss policy.
From the moment Pesutto won the leadership there has been a rump of disgruntled backbenchers united by their conservative views, affection for Moira Deeming, and their own stalled ambitions. Some of this discontent seems to be seeping further into the shadow cabinet.
Senior members of the partyroom are trying to downplay leadership rumblings, particularly with a looming federal byelection in Dunkley, but when pushed on whether the leadership issue is likely to come up in the next six months, it’s hard to find someone who disagrees.
It would take just five votes to bring on a spill. Finding signatories unhappy with the leadership isn’t difficult; finding a willing contender is the challenge.
While frontbenchers Brad Rowswell and Sam Groth are often mentioned by their colleagues as key to the party’s future leadership team, Pesutto’s greatest strength remains the lack of a viable rival willing to take him on.
Annika Smethurst is state political editor.
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