New Delhi: The Red Sea has become a hotspot for geopolitical tensions, with Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, launching attacks that reverberate beyond the immediate region. Approximately 40 per cent of trade between Asia and Europe, including vital commodities like oil and diesel fuel, passes through this region, significantly affecting import-dependent Europe. Diverse goods, from palm oil and grain to most manufactured items transported via container ships, contribute to the bustling maritime traffic in this critical area. Houthi attacks has disrupted global trade, with a 60 per cent decrease in daily container traffic through the Red Sea in past two months. Houthi attacks not only disrupt this vital maritime route but also pose a direct threat to India’s economic and strategic interests.
The Red Sea is a vital export route for India, facilitating shipments to Europe, the US East Coast, the Middle East, and African nations. The recent surge in threats to cargo vessels navigating this route poses a significant risk, potentially causing a substantial drop in India’s exports by around $30 billion. Roughly 20 per cent of India’s trade relies on the Suez Canal, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, representing a significant economic stake. The value of India’s trade through the Suez Canal amounts to a substantial $200 billion, covering both exports and imports. Notably, 40 per cent of India’s total oil imports from Russia traverse the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, equating to approximately 1.7 million barrels. Any targeting or rerouting of these ships could lead to a surge in costs, potentially escalating shipping expenses by up to 35 per cent, putting significant inflationary pressure on Indian exports. Despite ongoing threats, oil imports from Russia to India remain unaffected, possibly owing to Russia’s perceived alliance with Iran, providing a protective shield against potential attacks.
The Houthi rebels, in control of the majority of Yemen, have blatantly ignored international calls, including those from the UN, to cease their missile and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping routes. Their claimed support for Hamas in Gaza serves as a thinly veiled strategy to showcase their capabilities, enhance regional prestige, and align with Iran’s objectives. The Red Sea, strategically exploited, becomes a tool to intensify international pressure on Israel. These attacks are poised to persist as long as Israel remains involved in conflict.
The Houthis currently encounter minimal immediate threat, having approached the edge of victory in their decade-long conflict with Saudi Arabia. This creates a nuanced challenge for the international community. Situated in mountain fortresses with abundant resources, the well-armed Houthis possess a significant stockpile of precision drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles supplied by Iran, capable of reaching ships several hundred kilometres away. Their substantial arsenal positions them to sustain their campaign over an extended period.
Reacting to the threat, the OPG, a coalition predominantly led by the United States and Western nations, was established to counter the attacks by Houthi militants. The United States and Britain have initiated strikes against sites associated with the Houthi movement in Yemen, marking the first such action on the country. While these air strikes resembling self-defence operations in Iraq and Syria, there’s a question of the potential impact, if a sustained air campaign may lead to the degradation of Houthi capabilities.
Nevertheless, this strategy clashes with another imperative: preventing the regional crisis from reaching the threshold of direct Iranian involvement. The Houthis tactically utilise cost-effective weaponry, such as drones, to inflict significant damage. The impracticality of providing naval escorts for every commercial ship further compounds the challenge. This calculated aggression elevates the risk of a regional conflict, potentially dragging Iran into the fray, as evidenced by the provocative dispatch of its warship into the sea.
The Red Sea is a powder keg of tensions, casting an ominous shadow over the region. The recent developments serve as a stark reminder of the difficult choices and tumultuous waters looming on the horizon. The fervent hope is that the world doesn’t witness more red – the grim hue of bloodshed.
The unfolding events in the Red Sea rightly evoke concerns for India, given its economic dependencies. Indian sailors actively serve on commercial vessels flying various flags. While India has thus far avoided direct engagement, the imperative to safeguard its interests may compel support for the US-led coalition dedicated to ensuring freedom of navigation in the region. The Indian Navy strategically positioned over 10 warships in the area, spanning from the north and central Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This deployment aims to deter hijacking attempts and drone strikes. Despite this proactive stance, India has chosen not to participate in the US-led Operation.
The changing circumstances may require India to actively participate in ensuring maritime security. India holds certain advantages over Western countries, with its stance of non-involvement in the Yemeni civil war and sustains a longstanding partnership with Yemen. Furthermore, India’s close ties with Iran, the Houthis’ primary supporter, offer a strategic dimension for navigating these blood-stricken geopolitical waters. For this issue looks to be long drawn, to a lasting-conclusion.
India and the 193-km supply-chain global-ransom
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18.01.2024
New Delhi: The Red Sea has become a hotspot for geopolitical tensions, with Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, launching attacks that reverberate beyond the immediate region. Approximately 40 per cent of trade between Asia and Europe, including vital commodities like oil and diesel fuel, passes through this region, significantly affecting import-dependent Europe. Diverse goods, from palm oil and grain to most manufactured items transported via container ships, contribute to the bustling maritime traffic in this critical area. Houthi attacks has disrupted global trade, with a 60 per cent decrease in daily container traffic through the Red Sea in past two months. Houthi attacks not only disrupt this vital maritime route but also pose a direct threat to India’s economic and strategic interests.
The Red Sea is a vital export route for India, facilitating shipments to Europe, the US East Coast, the Middle East, and African nations. The recent surge in threats to cargo vessels navigating this route poses a significant risk, potentially causing a substantial drop in India’s exports by around $30 billion. Roughly 20 per cent of India’s trade relies on the Suez Canal, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, representing a significant economic stake. The value of India’s trade through the Suez Canal amounts to a substantial $200 billion, covering both exports and imports.........
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