Chilai Kalan, which in Kashmir refers to the time between 21st December to 30th of January, is considered the harshest month of winter here. It is going to be over in 15 days and there’s no snow in sight.
A few days back, people in the Jammu region of Jammu and Kashmir were shivering with cold as the day temperature was recorded around 8 degree Celsius. Around the same time, the temperature in Delhi was 12 degree celsius. Surprisingly, the temperature in Kashmir region was more than both regions, as it registered a temperature of around 15 Degrees celsius on the said day. This was the second highest maximum temperature of January in Srinagar after 50 years while the minimum temperature was minus 4.2 on Sunday. On the intervening night of Friday and Saturday, the minimum temperature in Srinagar was also unusual; it was zero degree Celsius which is quite uncommon in January as mercury dips down to minus 4 to 10 during January month.
For more than two weeks now, people have been eagerly waiting for snowfall but the climate is completely dry and sunny. The Meteorological (MeT) department in Srinagar has predicted some snowfall in the coming days but that will be very mild and restricted to hilly areas.
As of January 16th, 2024, there has been no snowfall from December 21st, 2023. Snowfall did occur on November 10, 2023, and December 16, 2023, in the mountains of Kashmir and hills, particularly in Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Doodh Pathri, and Yusmarg, with recorded amounts of 4 to 6 inches. Nevertheless, it was a mild snowfall, and the snow melted away within a few weeks.
These unusual weather patterns have caused a lot of concern for not only the environmentalists or weather experts but also those associated with the winter tourism industry as many tourists have cancelled their bookings. Many skiing players are said to have cancelled their bookings as there is not even an inch of snow in Gulmarg. The local schools in Srinagar and other districts who had plans to bring their students to Gulmarg have also cancelled their bookings and some have lost their advance money as well which they had paid to hotels in Gulmarg.
Rivers and Streams Drying Up
A few days back, Mukhtar Ahmad, director of the Indian Meteorological Department at Srinagar, while talking to a private news channel had said that the situation next summer could turn serious as there might not be enough water to feed the snow-fed rivers. A majority of rivers and streams in J&K are snow-fed and emerge from glaciers and if there is no snowfall in the higher reaches it will lead to drought in the summer.
Already the drinking water crisis is quite visible. The Dood Ganga stream has almost dried up due to no snowfall or rainfall during the last month. The situation has further turned ugly as the depth of Doodh Ganga has gone down drastically in the last few years due to illegal riverbed mining. The Doodh Ganga water filtration plant is receiving very less water from its source at Nowhar in Chadoora upper reaches. Earlier, I had been raising my concern about dumping of solid and liquid waste in Doodh Ganga , now the water level has also gone down as the flow isn’t maintained at all. The water is seeping down into trenches and caves that were created by huge machinery and cranes used by project proponents involved in riverbed mining. The borewells and tubewells located on the banks of Doodh Ganga have also dried up in many places and areas in city uptown and parts of Budgam district are facing acute water shortage.
Infact the use of heavy machinery like JCBs and L&T Cranes has been banned by National Green Tribunal (NGT) and is being finally enforced on the ground from June 1st 2023 but the damage already caused in the last 2 years has been intense. The locals say that the damage that has been caused to Doodh Ganga, Shali Ganga, Vaishav, Romshi or Rambiara streams in Budgam , Pulwama , Kulgam or Shopian during last 2 years has been massive as compared to riverbed mining done in last 15 years.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President meteorology Skymet weather services, told India Today in an interview that less or no snowfall in Jammu & Kashmir will be serious as the glaciers won’t get recharged. “In summer these glaciers will melt at a faster pace”, Mr Palawat said. He further said that if the trend continued, it could gradually lead to snow-fed rivers drying up.
Glaciers are receding
The melting of glaciers in Jammu & Kashmir including Ladakh will severely impact the water availability in the Himalayan region with consequent adverse effect on the dependent livelihoods, a leading scientist has warned. In September last year, the Govt of India had proposed forming a 13-member technical committee to evaluate the “carrying capacity” of 13 Himalayan States which includes J&K as frequent landslides leading to deaths and destruction had led the Supreme Court to moot a re-evaluation of the load-carrying capacity of hill towns and cities. Till date it is not known who is the evaluating officer having been assigned the work to be taken up in J&K and Ladakh.
Studies show that glaciers in Himalayan region have dwindled by 25% in the last 60 years while 48% of them could vanish by the century’s end even with moderate climate change.
Earth scientist and Vice Chancellor Islamic University of Sciences and Technology-IUST Awantipora Kashmir Prof Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, while talking to PTI in October last year had said:
“We have about 18,000 glaciers, some of these glaciers are big like the Siachen glacier which in one dimension has a length of about 65 kms. The huge glaciers we have, about 500 to 600 metres thick, are huge resources in J&K and Ladakh. The other thing that is happening in this region under the climate change is that we get less snowfall and comparatively we get more rainfall”
In July 2010, while trekking towards Tatakoti peak, I encountered an elderly shepherd (Bakerwal) named Mian Khari in the Domail Ashtar valley, where the Shali Ganga stream flows down to Doodh Pathri. Mian Khari, who is still alive and hails from Rajouri, gestured toward the glacier and shared that when he was young, the Tatakoti glacier’s snout was substantial. He remarked, “Over the span of 60 years, the Tatakoti glacier snout has significantly receded. Until mid-July, one could observe snow even 1 km down the glacier, but that is no longer the case.”
Who is to Blame?
The consequences of unplanned development and uncontrolled urbanisation in Jammu & Kashmir have caused severe environmental imbalance. We have destroyed everything. Laws and rules governing air and water pollution are violated not only by the private players but even by the law enforcing agencies like J&K Pollution Control Board , Srinagar Municipal Corporation , Municipal Committee and Geology and Mining Department.
Air Pollution from cement and brick kilns has increased black carbon emissions and that is enhancing glacial meltdown. No snowfall in Kashmir during Chilaikalan has global climate change reasons but the environmental disaster we caused locally is also responsible for it. If there will be less snowfall or no snowfall, the 2024 summer will teach us lots of lessons.
I hope it snows in the coming days and weeks and let us all pray for it. We shouldn’t even think of development on the pattern of Delhi, Mumbai or Indore. We live in an ecologically sensitive region and the Supreme Court has also taken a serious note of it as well in the matter of Ashok Kumar Raghav V/S Union of India case. In response to this Public Interest Litigation -PIL, the Govt of India in January 2020, circulated among the 13 Himalayan states guidelines for assessing the carrying capacity of their hill stations, including cities and eco-sensitive zones. It had sent a reminder on May 19, 2023 to all the 13 States to undertake the study and submit the action plan as early as possible but it is not known what action plan has been submitted by J&K Govt.
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