The Isle of Thanet is one of the more unlikely places for a political revolution. Lying on the eastern extremity of Kent, its remoteness gives the towns of Ramsgate, Broadstairs and Margate an idiosyncrasy that defines their politics. It was here in 2015 that Nigel Farage came closest to reaching the green benches of the House of Commons and where Ukip took control of its first council. The local issue that prompted the party’s rise was Manston Airport — a critical employer that devastated the community when it was shuttered.
It was here on the Kent coastline that Ukip morphed from a small fringe party of traditional Conservatives into the vehicle for millions of disaffected working-class voters, starting with the airport and morphing into wider grievances. Travelling up and down the M2 motorway, I witnessed over several years how Farage built what he called the “People’s Army” into a force that reshaped British politics. The key lesson is just how effective he can be at causing headaches for the Tories, if he puts his mind to it.
Farage and his various parties may have frittered away, but fears are rife that his army is about to rise again. Reform UK, his current vehicle, is currently as high as 10 per cent in some polls. If that number was replicated in a general election, it would be likely to cost the Conservatives scores of seats and pave the way for Labour to retake many of its former “red wall” heartlands. Unlike the 2019 election, Reform UK has shown no signs it is willing to stand aside. It intends to run a full-throated populist campaign next year.
As with Ukip, Reform UK’s hopes rest entirely on Farage personally and whether he decides to return to lead the party once more. Richard Tice, his stiff successor, struggles to connect with voters. Before Farage’s (mostly dull) stint in the jungle, it seemed he had found a more comfortable existence as a talk show host — shaping politics through media rather than the ballot box. But if reality television jettisons him back into the wider public imagination, he may be unable to resist a return to his old job.
So what should the Conservative Party do about this potential threat? First, it should not assume that Reform and Farage can be swatted away during the heat of an election campaign, when voters’ minds focus more wholly on who is going to lead the country. Lord Cameron’s infamous dismissal of Ukip as “fruitcakes and loonies” was a grave error that gave Farage prime material to use against the political establishment. If Farage does return, he should be taken seriously.
The solution is that Tories should focus on tackling the underlying problems that are driving support for Reform, no matter how thorny they are. Ukip thrived when its supporters felt their concerns were dismissed by mainstream politicians; the same is true again. That, therefore, means a big, serious and immediate move on immigration.
With net migration reaching a whopping high of 750,000 in 2022, swift and immediate action is required or Reform’s support will solidify and grow. Talk has been cheap for well over a decade on reducing migration below a quarter of a million – or even tens of thousands – but realistic plans to get there have been scarce. The post-Brexit migration system is simply not working and, thanks to leaving the EU, there are no excuses or places for MPs to hide.
What needs to be done is clear. Neil O’Brien, until recently a health minister, has called for Britain to become “the grammar school of the Western world”, with immigration that is both lower and more selective. He has recently set out the huge economic impact these levels of migration have had on the country, as well as the cultural change that is driving support for Reform. Part of that vision includes an “OBR for migration” — an institution echoing what the Office for Budget Responsibility does for the economy, ensuring ministers are accountable for their plans to cut numbers.
Onward has argued that the Government should produce a “Sustainable Immigration Plan” with a specific commitment to reduce low and medium skilled migration over a specific period of time. The current Migration Advisory Committee should be put on a statutory footing and go beyond advising ministers and actually diagnose why numbers are so high. This plan should be presented to Parliament every year to be scrutinised. It would firmly signal a new seriousness to deal with high levels of migration, working across several Whitehall departments to deliver what voters want: lower numbers.
What the Tories should not do is ape the simplistic words of Reform and Farage without substance. Ramping up caustic rhetoric is no substitute for delivery. There is no easy solution to the migration quandary and ministers should not try to pretend there is merely to win votes. But they must acknowledge the strength of feeling by showing calm and competent government to begin solving the issue over the next year. Voters will flock to radical alternatives if the centre does not work for them – and the centre right desperately needs to prove it can.
The stakes go beyond the next election. The UK is almost unique among Western democracies for not seeing the rise of far-right politics. Germany’s Alternative for Germany is polling second, ahead of the three parties currently in power. Marine Le Pen continues to surge in France. Donald Trump appears to be on course for a second term. The Brexit referendum was a safety valve for our democracy, a cry that the status quo was not working for too many people. Those same feelings are surfacing once more and they must be dealt with if Farage’s new army is to be disbanded.
Sebastian Payne is director of the centre right think-tank Onward
The one thing the Tories can do to stop Farage
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30.11.2023
The Isle of Thanet is one of the more unlikely places for a political revolution. Lying on the eastern extremity of Kent, its remoteness gives the towns of Ramsgate, Broadstairs and Margate an idiosyncrasy that defines their politics. It was here in 2015 that Nigel Farage came closest to reaching the green benches of the House of Commons and where Ukip took control of its first council. The local issue that prompted the party’s rise was Manston Airport — a critical employer that devastated the community when it was shuttered.
It was here on the Kent coastline that Ukip morphed from a small fringe party of traditional Conservatives into the vehicle for millions of disaffected working-class voters, starting with the airport and morphing into wider grievances. Travelling up and down the M2 motorway, I witnessed over several years how Farage built what he called the “People’s Army” into a force that reshaped British politics. The key lesson is just how effective he can be at causing headaches for the Tories, if he puts his mind to it.
Farage and his various parties may have frittered away, but fears are rife that his army is about to rise again. Reform UK, his current vehicle, is currently as high as 10 per cent in some polls. If that number was replicated in a general election, it would be likely to cost the Conservatives scores of seats and pave the way for Labour to retake many of its former........
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