After all that, it was not even a dozen. After months of darkening threats, both quiet and loud, Conservative MPs unhappy about the Safety of Rwanda Bill (mostly) stepped back from the precipice, deciding that the perfect should not be the enemy of the good.
The rebellion fizzled out surprisingly quickly – and for good reason. Had more joined the 11 who voted against the legislation on Wednesday, the whole Rwanda scheme would have collapsed with no obvious alternative. Now the party has to hope that the latest incarnation of the deterrent will pass muster and work.
But amid all the fury and focus on Rwanda, the Government should not forget there is an equally pressing issue to be dealt with that is at risk of being overshadowed by small boats.
Tackling the current scale of legal migration is just as important as the illegal numbers to voters, and will prove just as tricky to make progress on before the election. Although passing the Rwanda legislation was anything but a smooth process, there was ultimately a consensus among Tories that the problem cannot go unresolved. The same level of commitment is now needed to bring down economic migration.
A reminder of the challenge. Net migration hit an historic high of 672,000 last year and public confidence in the Government’s ability to reduce it has shrivelled up after too many unfilled pledges.
In the last four general elections, voters have made it clear that they want numbers cut. The heart of the campaign to leave the EU was about control, particularly of immigration. The opposite has happened, so it should be no shock that voters are unhappy.
This week, the Onward think-tank published new research into the true state of public opinion on migration and the findings should put the issue at the forefront of MPs’ minds. First, public perceptions of the problem are wildly out of kilter with reality. When we asked people what they perceived the level of net migration to be, the average answer was 70,000 – around a tenth of what it actually was last year. Such a disparity is unsustainable and risks fuelling support for disruptive political forces, such as Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
Even at this much reduced perceived number, respondents said migration was around three times too high. Although older Conservative voters want to cut it the most, a clear majority of younger university graduates who voted to Remain feel the same way.
The debate has been about control and reduction of migration, but are they necessarily the same thing? For the majority, the answer is a clear yes: 57 per cent of the country wants both more border controls and the numbers reduced.
Tackling legal migration is not the only thing voters want, but it is key to revitalising the Conservatives’ electoral standing given that its current, past and potential supporters care deeply about it. Between 2011 and 2020, Conservative supporters were consistently 20-30 percentage points more likely to cite immigration as a top issue than Labour voters. And since then, that gap has grown to 50 points. Nine out of 10 constituencies favour both control and reductions of borders; the small number that do not are Labour strongholds.
Every single part of the Tories’ 2019 voting coalition cares more about the issue than the average voter. It matters especially to those who have abandoned the party. For Conservative supporters who say they would back Reform in an election tomorrow, 85 per cent rank immigration as a top issue. Those who are uncertain how to vote put it at 47 per cent. And even 41 per cent of those who have fled to the Labour party cite it as a top issue. It could not be more imperative to winning these voters back to demonstrate a serious plan to bring numbers down and make progress now.
There are some changes kicking in soon that should help cut numbers. Last year, the Home Office announced changes that will make a material impact. From the spring, social care workers will no longer be allowed to bring dependents from overseas; the baseline salary for skilled workers will increase; the shortage occupation list will reduce the number of jobs available; and the graduate visa route is also being reduced.
All these measures will speak to the public’s desire to cut legal migration, but the Government should be prepared to go further.
What should guide this process is the notion of control. It isn’t just all about numbers – voters are happy with doctors and nurses coming to the UK, but what we have been getting instead are large numbers of lower-skilled migrants coming to work at below the UK average salary.
There is a majority in favour of reducing migration across every age group and voting bloc. Even younger voters, who are more relaxed about the cultural aspect of high migration, are worried about the increased demand for limited housing supply and public services, as well as the downward pressure on wages.
The rows over Rwanda have been unedifying and suggest that some in Westminster appear to have become bored of serious policy making and prefer tedious political fights instead.
Yet there is time to demonstrate through progress and intent that the Government can control our borders, cutting legal as well as illegal numbers. If the Conservatives have any hope of staving off the threat of Reform and Farage come the election campaign, it must move fast.
Sebastian Payne is director of the centre-right think-tank Onward
The immigration debate we have all forgotten
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18.01.2024
After all that, it was not even a dozen. After months of darkening threats, both quiet and loud, Conservative MPs unhappy about the Safety of Rwanda Bill (mostly) stepped back from the precipice, deciding that the perfect should not be the enemy of the good.
The rebellion fizzled out surprisingly quickly – and for good reason. Had more joined the 11 who voted against the legislation on Wednesday, the whole Rwanda scheme would have collapsed with no obvious alternative. Now the party has to hope that the latest incarnation of the deterrent will pass muster and work.
But amid all the fury and focus on Rwanda, the Government should not forget there is an equally pressing issue to be dealt with that is at risk of being overshadowed by small boats.
Tackling the current scale of legal migration is just as important as the illegal numbers to voters, and will prove just as tricky to make progress on before the election. Although passing the Rwanda legislation was anything but a smooth process, there was ultimately a consensus among Tories that the problem cannot go unresolved. The same level of commitment is now needed to bring down economic migration.
A reminder of the challenge. Net migration hit an historic high of 672,000 last year and public confidence in the Government’s ability to reduce it has shrivelled up after too many........
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