Andrew Neil called it one of the most important political moments of his life. As the 2019 election results rolled in, the doyen of broadcasting proclaimed: “The Conservative Party that now has its majority is very different from the previous Conservative government. It’s less metropolitan, it’s less southern, it’s less bourgeoise. It’s more working class, it’s more northern, more small towns and cities.”
Neil was bang on to note the arrival of a “new establishment” in 2019, ranking alongside 1979 and 1945 as the third transformative election of modern times.
The last election heralded a realignment on the centre right, the culmination of a four-year transformation after the Brexit referendum where the Conservative Party’s voting base shifted subtly but decisively. The collapse of the 40 or so “Red Wall” seats in the Midlands and the North that had always voted Labour was proof that the Tories had become a truly one nation party. From Dorking to Durham, the unique circumstances of 2019 formed one of the widest coalitions – geographically and demographically – in the party’s history.
How to deliver on that vast mandate, however, has proven a struggle for three prime ministers. Boris Johnson perched himself outside Downing Street and told the nation he would repay the trust put in him by those voters. The Levelling Up agenda to tackle long-standing regional inequalities was at the heart of his mission, but the turbulence of the pandemic and the chaotic end of his premiership meant Johnson failed to fulfil his defining purpose in office. Liz Truss sought to improve the country’s prospects through faster growth and the creation of investment zones, but made no tangible difference during her short, calamitous reign.
And now it is Rishi Sunak trying to deliver on the realignment. Both Johnson and Sunak have grasped that the new coalition’s outlook is more to the right on cultural issues and more to the left on economics than what came before. This means a more hawkish stance on migration, for example, while favouring more investment in public services – all within the spectrum of a conservative worldview that favours the individual over the state, within the structures of family, community and nation.
Too many Conservatives, however, see the realignment as being all about culture – with relentless shrill campaigning on social issues and too little focus on economics.
Within the realignment, there are indeed wide concerns about free speech and the march of an ultra-liberal worldview. But Onward’s research has consistently shown that these issues rank far behind the basic economic concerns on inflation and the cost of living crisis. For the 2019 voters who now sit in the “don’t know” column, tangible help with their daily lives is far more crucial than banging on about an (often imagined) enemy within.
The Government’s two major moments this week – the reshuffle removing Suella Braverman as home secretary and announcing a Plan B for delivering the Rwanda deportation scheme – have prompted a ton of badly informed commentary about why it is all evidence of giving up on the realignment and returning to a core vote strategy centered on the prosperous south. The eye-opening return of Lord Cameron as Foreign Secretary is further evidence for those disgruntled MPs who believe their views and voters are being shunned.
Such concerns are wrongheaded. Braverman’s ouster from the Home Office had nothing to do with policy; her temperament, public persona and failure to grip the machinery of government provoked her downfall. James Cleverly, her Brexit-backing, Johnson-supporting successor, has shown no indication of shifting leftwards. He is more likely to be emollient in office but will remain just as dedicated to reducing overall migration, dealing with small boats and securing our borders as Braverman. Albeit (hopefully) with greater success.
There is also little evidence in the reshuffle that Sunak has given up on those representing the realignment – particularly in briefs where action is most crucial. The appointment of Richard Holden as party chairman means a Red Wall MP will be leading the Tories’ campaigning efforts into the election. The promotion of Lee Rowley to housing minister means another rising star representing a traditionally Labour-held seat holding a key ministerial portfolio. But above all, competence is what matters to Conservative voters across the whole country. Lord Cameron’s return is about heft and experience at a time when the UK is coping with two wars – something all shades of Tory voters will appreciate.
Three years ago, I travelled some 6,000 miles across England to unpick how and why Labour’s traditional heartlands had broken with the party – and whether it was permanent or temporary. In the subsequent book, I learned that the millions of first-time Tory voters wanted change. They wanted a new economic model; they wanted a state that supported them without meddling too much in their lives.
They wanted a common sense approach on cultural issues that was closer to the real centre of public opinion than the median view of Westminster. Above all, they wanted politics to no longer dominate their lives. They wanted politicians to do what they pledged.
What they did not want is zealotry campaigning, in the vein of the radical leftist group Momentum that almost ruined the Labour Party for good. They did not want MPs constantly bickering. They would not back an all-consuming focus on leaving the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights), for example, unless it was the final possible option for dealing with small boats.
One of the most misunderstood elements of the alignment is that the first-time Tory voters had gradually moved towards the Conservatives, just as the Conservatives had moved towards them. As the big nationalised industries in the Midlands and the North faded away, their communities and economies had changed while Labour had left them behind. There was a meeting of hearts, minds and ideals at the last election. They bought not only into Brexit and Boris Johnson, but the tested Conservative values of modernisation and pragmatism.
It was these traditional Tory values that were demonstrated this week, with the arrival of new faces in Cabinet and some old – certainly not a reversion to soggy centrism.
Sebastian Payne is director of the centre-right think-tank Onward
Suella Braverman and her supporters have never understood 'Red Wall' voters
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16.11.2023
Andrew Neil called it one of the most important political moments of his life. As the 2019 election results rolled in, the doyen of broadcasting proclaimed: “The Conservative Party that now has its majority is very different from the previous Conservative government. It’s less metropolitan, it’s less southern, it’s less bourgeoise. It’s more working class, it’s more northern, more small towns and cities.”
Neil was bang on to note the arrival of a “new establishment” in 2019, ranking alongside 1979 and 1945 as the third transformative election of modern times.
The last election heralded a realignment on the centre right, the culmination of a four-year transformation after the Brexit referendum where the Conservative Party’s voting base shifted subtly but decisively. The collapse of the 40 or so “Red Wall” seats in the Midlands and the North that had always voted Labour was proof that the Tories had become a truly one nation party. From Dorking to Durham, the unique circumstances of 2019 formed one of the widest coalitions – geographically and demographically – in the party’s history.
How to deliver on that vast mandate, however, has proven a struggle for three prime ministers. Boris Johnson perched himself outside Downing Street and told the nation he would repay the trust put in him by those voters. The Levelling Up agenda to tackle long-standing regional inequalities was at the heart of his mission, but the turbulence of the pandemic and the chaotic end of his premiership meant Johnson failed to fulfil his defining purpose in office.........
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