Will we ever stop talking about Rwanda? It’s rapidly coming up to two long years since Boris Johnson announced plans to off-shore processing of illegal asylum seekers to the African nation. The original goal for the first flight taking off in June 2022 would now feel laughably optimistic were it not so depressing. On Wednesday alone, 514 migrants crossed the Channel in 10 boats, the highest in one day this year. With 4,000 migrants crossing in 2024 so far, the challenge is becoming ever greater and frustrations are ever mounting.
Two prime ministers and three notable court judgments later, the Rwanda saga might be finally coming to an end – albeit with one final parliamentary conflagration. The so-called ping-pong between the Commons and Lords over legislation to get the flights off the ground has pushed the whole scheme back by weeks or months, thanks to the thumping objections of peers.
With opposition to Rwanda still intense, is it time to keep going or perhaps put the entire plan to bed?
Throughout this tortuous process, critics of the Rwanda plan have consistently argued it’s not worth the hassle; that the Government should look for other solutions to deal with the small boats crisis such as more return deals to other countries, as Sir Keir Starmer has suggested. Other critics think the whole issue is being whipped up into a populist fever and Rwanda has become a culture war issue to force political dividing lines.
These criticisms are very wrongheaded; Westminster consistently underestimates how important migration is to voters. According to YouGov’s latest tracker of what matters most, 45 per cent currently put immigration and asylum as their top issue – the second most pressing issue, ranking only behind health on 53 per cent. In all of our recent national elections, tough border controls and reduced migration have played a central role in the Conservative Party’s messaging. And no one needs reminding of the potency of “take back control”.
To use a tired political cliche, there is no alternative. Years into this debacle and there is little choice for Rishi Sunak to keep going and do everything he can to get the law passed and flights off the ground if he wants to maintain any trust on immigration. There is a principled reason why it matters: if you arrive in the UK illegally, you should have no viable route to stay. The rapid, almost unchecked rise in small boat crossings is breaking this principle and Sunak must show that he is willing to do everything in his power to ensure it matters.
It’s also worth noting that there is also nothing intrinsically wrong with offshore processing to deter those seeking to come to the UK illegally. Sir Tony Blair’s Downing Street examined similar plans to the Rwanda scheme in 2003 – albeit with processing on the Isle of Mull before deporting abroad to countries deemed safe havens. And just as Tory leaders have found today, Blair was warned that the European Convention on Human Rights would pose a challenge and he might be forced to break with the convention to avoid legal challenges.
As another cliche goes, we wouldn’t start from here and the Government has little choice to press ahead. The latest delay in the House of Lords’ efforts to thwart the legislation to get flights off the ground to Rwanda means that it will be April at the earliest when the bill is passed. There will be plenty of rancour ahead, but it is likely that peers will ultimately accept that continuing to reject the legislation is democratically unsustainable. When the legislative turbulence is over, the onus is then on ministers to get the flights going.
Breaking the pernicious business model of people smugglers is not only the moral thing to do to restore control of our borders, it is also foundational to any recovery for Sunak or the Conservative Party’s standing. The rise of Reform UK over the last year is directly linked to voters’ frustrations on the illegal migration issue. As pollster Peter Kellner has analysed, nearly all of their supporters come from disaffected Tories, whereas Ukip (once upon a time) took many of its supporters from the Labour Party. With the latest polling putting Reform just four points behind the Tories, giving up on Rwanda would be disastrous.
Earlier this year, Onward took a deep dive into current attitudes on migration and found that immigration matters particularly to the 2019 Conservative supporters who have floated off to Reform or currently don’t know how to vote. Every part of the party’s voting coalition in all parts of the country care more about the issue than the average punter: 85 per cent of Conservative to Reform switchers cite immigration as a top issue, as do 47 per cent of those who are uncertain how to vote. The Reform switchers are also hawkish on overall numbers, with 93 per cent wanting more control and more reduction of numbers.
Ultimately, Rwanda must happen to restore trust. There is nothing more toxic for disaffected voters than unfulfilled pledges. To have any hope of winning back lost voters since the 2019 election, the Rwanda plan must pass Parliament and ministers must ensure they can get planes off the ground.
Was pursuing off-shore processing in itself a mistake? No. Was opting to deal with Rwanda an error, given all of the legal complications the plan has faced? Maybe. But at this stage, Sunak has to make it work. As we saw when one of his predecessors forced Brexit through parliament by hook or crook, voters ultimately were thankful. Even when in parliamentary hell, there is no alternative to keep going, face down the opposition, and get Rwanda done.
Sebastian Payne is the director of the centre right think tank Onward and writes a weekly column for i on policy and politics.
He was previously a journalist at the Financial Times, The Spectator and The Washington Post, and is the author of two books, Broken Heartlands and The Fall of Boris Johnson
Rishi Sunak has no alternative but to Get Rwanda Done
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21.03.2024
Will we ever stop talking about Rwanda? It’s rapidly coming up to two long years since Boris Johnson announced plans to off-shore processing of illegal asylum seekers to the African nation. The original goal for the first flight taking off in June 2022 would now feel laughably optimistic were it not so depressing. On Wednesday alone, 514 migrants crossed the Channel in 10 boats, the highest in one day this year. With 4,000 migrants crossing in 2024 so far, the challenge is becoming ever greater and frustrations are ever mounting.
Two prime ministers and three notable court judgments later, the Rwanda saga might be finally coming to an end – albeit with one final parliamentary conflagration. The so-called ping-pong between the Commons and Lords over legislation to get the flights off the ground has pushed the whole scheme back by weeks or months, thanks to the thumping objections of peers.
With opposition to Rwanda still intense, is it time to keep going or perhaps put the entire plan to bed?
Throughout this tortuous process, critics of the Rwanda plan have consistently argued it’s not worth the hassle; that the Government should look for other solutions to deal with the small boats crisis such as more return deals to other countries, as Sir Keir Starmer has suggested. Other critics think the whole issue is being whipped up into a populist fever and Rwanda has become a culture war issue to force political dividing lines.
These criticisms are very wrongheaded;........
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