The world had good reason to be thankful for the RAF this weekend – not for the first time. British jets took to the skies over Iraq and Syria in what has become a traditional role for the airforce: defending the citizens of a democracy from bombardment and assault by a malign dictatorship.
Those pilots were one element of a coordinated defence involving American, Jordanian and Israeli action to knock down the vast majority of the hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones Iran, and its wholly-owned terrorist groups in the region, fired at Israel on Saturday night. French patrols and Saudi intelligence are also reported to have offered some assistance.
While the extremists, ideologues and Iranian proxies in the West who have cheered on Houthi attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea in recent weeks may lament such action, Lord Cameron was right, in his media round yesterday, to cite this collaborative defensive effort as a positive development.
With hundreds of missiles and drones flying, and one major Middle Eastern power unashamedly and directly launching such an assault against another from its own territory, what positivity can possibly be found amid the crisis?
First, this military action offers the rare opportunity of serving a de-escalatory purpose – if the opportunity is capitalised upon successfully. As Cameron argued on Monday, the combined effort against Iran’s armada of “110 ballistic missiles, 36 cruise missiles, [and] 185 drones” worked in its most urgent purpose, blunting Iran’s attack by preventing almost all of those weapons from reaching their intended target.
Those brave pilots, and Israel’s own innovative aerial defences, prevented the delivery of many tons of high explosives to targets in Israel. They thereby saved countless lives by disrupting what was openly an attempt at terror bombing.
Just as importantly, the fact that the capacity of Iran to reach out its hand across the Middle East and kill people with impunity was found wanting is an indisputably positive thing. It reduces Tehran’s ability to intimidate and threaten, but it will also deter them from trying the same thing again, lest their menacing reputation be further undermined by another failure.
The success of the defensive effort is the first element of what the Foreign Secretary refers to as the “double defeat” Iran has suffered.
The second defeat is in the war of propaganda and global public opinion. Anyone following the facts on the ground knows that Iran – and particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which inexplicably this country still has not proscribed – is the hand controlling, funding and arming Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other purveyors of mass murder across the region.
Iran barely veils this fact itself when it threatens Hezbollah rockets or Hamas assaults in the service of its interests. That is why the Israelis, entirely legitimately, killed one of the senior IRGC officers responsible for coordinating terrorist violence against their citizens.
Nevertheless, for purposes of propaganda, lawfare and diplomacy, Iran normally keeps up the pretence that it is not responsible for these actions. By openly launching this assault directly against Israel, from its own territory, the Islamic republic has dropped even that presentational excuse.
Cameron is focusing on that as a strategic Iranian error, by exposing themselves as an indisputably “malign influence”. He implicitly suggests that the weekend’s attack could present Israel an opportunity to reset some of the international debate about the current war, depending on how it chooses to respond. Refusing to escalate further, and instead “taking the win”, is – he argues – the stronger, tougher thing to do.
In so doing, he is adapting his message in accordance with what he hopes will best appeal to the Netenyahu government. The recent killing of aid workers – including Britons – in Gaza by Israeli airstrikes has led to the most difficult period for Israel in terms of its relations with allies such as the UK and US.
It may be that the Israeli government has no interest in shepherding international opinion, and is simply guided by Golda Meir’s maxim that “if we have to have a choice between being dead and pitied, and being alive with a bad image, we’d rather be alive and have the bad image”. They might reasonably think that a friend who can’t stand by them in defeating Hamas, the terrorists responsible for the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, isn’t a reliable friend at all.
But if Netanyahu does feel the need to bring his allies with him – either to ensure long-term security, or out of a sense of obligation, or simply for short-term self-interest such as continued defence cooperation – then Cameron’s is probably the message that stands the best chance of being heard.
Notably, and wisely, the Foreign Secretary has resisted invitations to set out any limits or caveats on Britain’s support in knocking down any ballistic Iranian attacks in future. Threatening conditions on defending against such aggression would only embolden Iran, and simultaneously amp up the prospect of a more drastic reaction by Israel.
Ultimately, the UK can only control what it controls. It can no more prevent Israel from defending itself than it can prevent Iran from continuing its attempts to export terrorism. Cameron’s careful balancing act is aimed at bolstering those defences, and deterring that aggression. Projecting targeted military power, as the RAF did at the weekend, is the essential first step which gives everything else a chance.
Mark Wallace is chief executive of Total Politics Group
David Cameron’s message on Iran has the best chance of being heard
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16.04.2024
The world had good reason to be thankful for the RAF this weekend – not for the first time. British jets took to the skies over Iraq and Syria in what has become a traditional role for the airforce: defending the citizens of a democracy from bombardment and assault by a malign dictatorship.
Those pilots were one element of a coordinated defence involving American, Jordanian and Israeli action to knock down the vast majority of the hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones Iran, and its wholly-owned terrorist groups in the region, fired at Israel on Saturday night. French patrols and Saudi intelligence are also reported to have offered some assistance.
While the extremists, ideologues and Iranian proxies in the West who have cheered on Houthi attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea in recent weeks may lament such action, Lord Cameron was right, in his media round yesterday, to cite this collaborative defensive effort as a positive development.
With hundreds of missiles and drones flying, and one major Middle Eastern power unashamedly and directly launching such an assault against another from its own territory, what positivity can possibly be found amid the crisis?
First, this military action offers the rare opportunity of serving a de-escalatory purpose – if the opportunity is capitalised upon successfully. As Cameron argued on Monday, the combined effort against Iran’s armada........
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