The Tory party is on high alert this week. Rishi Sunak’s critics are talking up the idea that letters of no confidence are slowly going in. He has had his former deputy party chairman defect to Reform. He is under pressure to return £10m after admitting the man who gave it to the party previously made racist comments about Diane Abbott. In the process, Sunak has annoyed some in his party for taking so long to call the comments racist.
It means it’s safe to say morale is low. Some in the party have even been arguing that a May election is now the best bet to cut losses. But Sunak’s inner circle see this as mischief making by those Tory MPs who want to produce bad blood in a bid to create a leadership vacancy sooner rather than later.
Instead, Sunak is inclined to go long – in the hope that something turns up. As one hopeful Cabinet minister puts it: “It’s not great now. But the economy is doing better and bills are going to come down from April.” But there’s also another policy area that has the potential to be make or break between now and the autumn: illegal migration.
On Monday, the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to the House of Commons after a bruising period in the Lords. The bill is how Sunak plans to get around the Supreme Court’s withering verdict that the Government’s flagship scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is unlawful. Had the Court’s verdict gone the other way last year, Sunak would probably be in a much stronger position with his party – and some of his target voters.
Instead, the Plan B he had to come up with in a bid to fix it split his party, led to the resignation of his old ally Robert Jenrick as Home Office minister and saw Lee Anderson quit as deputy chairman – one of the steps on his way to defecting. “Rwanda has become an albatross around our necks,” says a Tory MP. What was meant to be a “stop the boats” policy to unite the right has instead become a joke used by both the Labour Party and Reform to disparage the Tories.
It’s why news this week that failed asylum seekers will now be offered up to £3,000 to move to Rwanda under a voluntary scheme has been leapt on as evidence that the Government is having to resort to desperate tactics to meet its words. As Jenrick put it on reading the reports: “This is an admission from the Government that the weaker version of the Rwanda scheme they chose to pursue will not work.” However, Government figures dispute this – arguing it is simply an extension of an existing scheme and not a reading on how the flagship scheme is expected to fare.
When Sunak opted for a version of the Safety of the Rwanda Bill that fell short of the Tory right’s expectations but went further on disregarding international law than the One Nation Tories would like, it was meant to be the closest to a compromise the party and Lords would tolerate. While also having a chance of planes actually taking off with asylum seekers on it before the election.
So far, it has failed on two measures. The Tory party is split and the Lords are not keen on it. Sunak suffered his heaviest Lords defeat this month when the Archbishop of Canterbury joined forces with a bunch of former Conservative ministers to add five amendments. Since then, the number has gone into double figures.
As things stand, neither the whips’ office or Tory MPs are expecting much blue on blue when it returns to the Commons. Instead – as a former minister puts it – “it will mean very late nights voting which we could all do without”. Then whether the bill gets Royal Assent at the end of the month is down to whether peers eventually give up in the game of ping pong. MPs are all too aware that if the Lords re-add amendments, the bill would then return to the Commons on Monday 25 and Tuesday 26 March. Notably, 26 March would be when dissolution is for a 2 May election. Hence why some thought the fight against peers could be used to launch a stop the boats election. However, Number 10 sources suggest this is wide of the mark.
If it does eventually become law, there remain big challenges. Government sources warn that Royal Assent will not mean a flight the next day. There will logistical obstacles. But even Sunak’s critics believe he has a decent chance of winning his – misguided – £1,000 bet with Piers Morgan of a flight pre-election.
They say they believe the chance of a flight taking off to Rwanda with asylum seekers on it (and ones that have not been paid £3k) is under priced. “Their plan could work. It just won’t do it on a large scale,” says one such figure. Individuals could still launch appeals so expect some half-empty flights.
The political question is whether this would be enough to make a mark. The Tories argue that Labour and Reform have spent so long criticising the scheme as unworkable. They say Labour has no real plan to tackle illegal migration, yet has said it would stop the Rwanda plan. Therefore if several flights go – the pressure will be on the other side.
Or, will Rwanda simply be seen as a gimmick? There may not be enough time between a flight and polling day to show whether it has any deterrent effect. But despite all these “ifs” and “buts”, Sunak’s precarious position means getting the Rwanda scheme off the ground is one of the best options he has left.
With Tory moral so low, Rishi Sunak needs a Rwanda flight more than ever
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13.03.2024
The Tory party is on high alert this week. Rishi Sunak’s critics are talking up the idea that letters of no confidence are slowly going in. He has had his former deputy party chairman defect to Reform. He is under pressure to return £10m after admitting the man who gave it to the party previously made racist comments about Diane Abbott. In the process, Sunak has annoyed some in his party for taking so long to call the comments racist.
It means it’s safe to say morale is low. Some in the party have even been arguing that a May election is now the best bet to cut losses. But Sunak’s inner circle see this as mischief making by those Tory MPs who want to produce bad blood in a bid to create a leadership vacancy sooner rather than later.
Instead, Sunak is inclined to go long – in the hope that something turns up. As one hopeful Cabinet minister puts it: “It’s not great now. But the economy is doing better and bills are going to come down from April.” But there’s also another policy area that has the potential to be make or break between now and the autumn: illegal migration.
On Monday, the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to the House of Commons after a bruising period in the Lords. The bill is how Sunak plans to get around the Supreme Court’s withering verdict that the Government’s........
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