It’s election fever once again in the UK. In Westminster, MPs have been sent into a spin by rumours that Rishi Sunak could call a summer election as early as Monday. However, No 10 has poured cold water on the claims, with one senior Government figure telling me: “It’s utter b****cks.”
But north of the border, talk of an early election is harder to shake off. The First Minister, Humza Yousaf, is facing his biggest leadership crisis to date after he abruptly junked his party’s power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens. As a result, the SNP leader is facing various confidence votes and if he cannot fix things sharpish many believe that an early Scottish Parliament election – currently due for 2026 – could be on the cards.
It means that the first half of next week will be dominated by what is happening in Holyrood – before attention moves back to London for Thursday’s local elections.
Yet, what takes place in Scotland next week could be just as significant for the general election as the Westminster wranglings that will inevitably follow the local election results.
Yousaf could face a confidence vote in his leadership as early as Wednesday, and even a confidence vote in his government. Only the second would be binding – meaning that if he lost his government would collapse. But even losing the first ballot would be damning and lead to fresh speculation about his ability to fight on.
There is already talk about Yousaf’s potential successors – with the front-runners believed to be his former SNP leadership rival Kate Forbes and the party’s leader at Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn.
Yousaf could still save himself, however. The MSP for Glasgow Pollok insists that he will not go quietly – even if the men in grey kilts come knocking. He plans to fight on and could be saved by his one-time leadership rival Ash Regan, who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba party.
If Yousaf is pushed out, it could fall on the Scottish Parliament to pick a new First Minister. There would be 28 days to do so, but if it failed to select someone in that time, then the rules suggest that an election would follow. But Scottish Parliament sources suspect that the Greens would not want to risk an election even if they wanted to embarrass Yousaf.
An early trip to the polls would delight Scottish Labour and offer a preview of some of the currents ahead of a general election. As one Labour figure puts it: “The plan has always been for a Scottish recovery – beginning with a return of MPs in the general and then, all going well, Anas Sarwar becoming the first minister in 2026.”
If the election dates switch, then the plan may have to as well. But whether Yousaf stays or goes, recent events are likely to send ripples that will be felt in a general election.
Ever since Yousaf took over from Nicola Sturgeon, it has felt in many ways like a poisoned chalice. A Sturgeon loyalist, Yousaf was the continuity choice and it was this that helped to get him across the line.
However, the downside is that he has struggled to differentiate himself from his former mentor. As well as more than a decade in government, Yousaf has had to contend with an ongoing police investigation into alleged SNP fraud with Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell re-arrested – and then charged with embezzling party funds – earlier this month.
On top of this, Yousaf, 39, has struggled with the weight of office. His Government’s hate-speech law has led to a backlash, and claims of incompetence and his decision to drop climate emissions targets after they were deemed unachievable has led to a lurch to the left and prompted the end of the relationship with the Greens.
“He really is Humza Useless,” says a Conservative Party minister at Westminster.
But besides the number of Tories and figures in Labour embracing the Schadenfreude of watching their long-time opponents suffer, the bigger takeaway is what it means for the whole of the UK: it is not just adding to the chances of Sir Keir Starmer winning the keys to No 10 but coming back with something close to a super-majority.
Since Labour suffered one of its worst-ever defeats in Scotland in 2015 – losing 40 of its 41 seats – the situation north of the border has been viewed as one of its biggest blockers to getting back into power.
“It’s quite simple,” says a Labour figure. “Without a Scottish recovery, the parliamentary arithmetic is against us.”
This is why focusing on Scotland – with key candidates such as the former Labour minister Douglas Alexander returning – has been a key task for Starmer’s senior aide, Morgan McSweeney.
His wife Imogen Walker, a former animal rights activist and councillor in London, is also Scottish Labour’s candidate in Hamilton and Clyde Valley for the general election.
So far the mood music is good – so much so that many Labour MPs dare not believe the polls suggesting they are on course to be the largest party in Scotland.
In an effort bid to win as many seats as possible, the election team is precisely assigning funding to the most in-need seats in an attempt to boost the party’s fortunes.
It means that those candidates in the safest target seats are receiving relatively little funding. Instead, resources are being piled in to realistic marginals.
That model led to victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in October, when Labour’s candidate, Michael Shanks, took the Westminster seat with 17,845 votes – more than double the number polled by the SNP’s Katy Loudon.
As one member of the Shadow Cabinet puts it: “In England our opponent is the Tories. In Scotland it is the SNP. It is that simple.”
The latest turmoil within the SNP is good news for Starmer. And for all Labour’s efforts to win over voters, its most effective tool is the SNP’s own failures that are driving long-time nationalist voters to look for an alternative.
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