Labour has had a really good year. The turnaround in fortunes is quite remarkable when you look back at how fragile the party and indeed Keir Starmer’s own leadership seemed in May 2021. “Labour crashes to humiliating by-election defeat in Hartlepool”; “Starmer faces uncomfortable questions as party loses seat to Tories for the first time in 62 years”, screamed the headlines – and they were from friendly papers.
Then came a botched reshuffle, whereby Starmer tried to demote Angela Rayner and ended up getting his head metaphorically flushed down the bog. Boris Johnson and the Tories couldn’t believe their luck. Labour under Starmer were still a shambles and there was talk of Johnson winning not just a second but even a third term. A lot can happen in a couple of years.
Much of Labour’s good fortune is, of course, down to Boris Johnson’s entirely self-inflicted demise because of “Partygate”, his hubris, arrogance, bad character and idiotic behaviour. Then came the madness of Liz “who ARE the markets anyway?” Truss, who took a wrecking ball to the economy and the Tory party polling numbers. And let us not forget the shock resignation of Nicola Sturgeon last March. Suddenly the SNP looks naked, cold and vulnerable.
While Starmer is one lucky general, luck in politics (as in life) is often hard work and preparation meeting a moment of opportunity and being able to convert it to your advantage.
The Labour leader and his team did a lot of soul-searching in the aftermath of Hartlepool. They brought in Rachel Reeves as shadow Chancellor, replacing Anneliese Dodds, and used the 2021 party conference to get important internal rule changes through, which would thwart the power of the hard left within the machine – particularly when it came to trying to deselect moderate MPs.
While this was not exactly super-sexy stuff to the outside world, it was an important moment to lay the foundations so the party could be in a better position. Starmer always said that he had a three-stage plan: sort out the party; become an effective attack operation; win the public.
This is the year where we saw those three things beginning to come together – although the third and arguably most important stage is still very much a work in progress. But there’s no denying that the success Labour has seen this year in crucial by-elections all over the country (Selby and Ainsty, Tamworth, Mid Bedfordshire, Rutherglen and Hamilton West) tell a positive story and have sent a shiver down every Tory MP’s spine.
Starmer has appointed a punchy, impressive, ambitious shadow Cabinet with fresh talent such as Darren Jones, rising stars like Wes Streeting and experienced wise heads including Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn. Business leaders are flocking to see Reeves and her team. The donations are flowing in. In two and a half years, the narrative has shifted from ‘there’s absolutely no chance for Labour’, to ‘holy f**k, Labour is actually going to win the next election’.
Having said that, a lot could happen in these febrile times. There is an undeniable rage against 13 years of Tory rule and the broken Britain we see around us, ravaged by austerity, incompetence and a lack of leadership. But there is also a lack of excitement about a change in government. People feel so ground down by political failure, they can’t see anyone being able to fix it.
If Labour can make history and get over the line, there will, of course, be a sense of relief that, finally, 13 years of chaotic, destructive, often surreal Tory rule is over, but there won’t be those 1997 vibes. These are very different times. Senior figures argue that it’s not about offering false, dangerous hope, but winning at all costs, then doing good and making the changes to prove to people that you deserve a second or even third term. It’s about under-promising and over-delivering.
Labour knows the challenges that lie ahead. They face much criticism for being boring, technical and low key. But they also believe that their success and their ability to change Britain is rooted in those rather unglamorous traits – traits embodied by the late chancellor Alistair Darling, who passed away three weeks ago.
At Darling’s funeral on Tuesday afternoon in a grand old, chilly Edinburgh cathedral, the aisles were packed with famous faces from across the Labour movement – Blair, Brown, Starmer, Mandleson, Balls, Miliband, Campbell – plus lots of peers, MPs and MSPs, who had to rush off back to Holyrood as, rather fittingly, it was Scottish Budget Day. Also in attendance was SNP First Minister Humza Yousaf and figures from the Lib Dems and Tories, including George Osborne, Darling’s fierce opponent for years. It was interesting to see Osborne so at ease with his old adversaries, whom he had once said couldn’t be trusted with the economy. These days he talks up Reeves as the next chancellor.
The service was restrained and elegant. The music was beautiful. At one point, winter sun hit the stained glass windows, creating a kaleidoscope of colour. The tributes told the story of an exemplary public servant who embodied dignity, decency, integrity, intellect, humility and dry wit.
But infused in the warm words was a political lesson for every Labour person in the room. It was to win. And to cherish the privilege of governing – even when it was really difficult and scary, as with the global financial crisis – and to make big, era-defining decisions. But as Darling’s old pal and former energy minister, Brian Wilson, reminded the congregation, how you make change in government is not just about those famous big calls, it’s the accumulation of those everyday, more mundane decisions that should be governed by your core values of social justice as well as pragmatism.
He’s right. It can be the weight of good small decisions, which amount to something of substance. And as we all see now with our public services, especially in local government, death by a thousand cuts can be as devastating as the swing of one big axe.
It was telling that Rachel Reeves did the eulogy. Darling was a great friend and mentor to Reeves from when she entered Parliament in 2010 as a young economist, just as he left high office as chancellor. He provided her with much advice and counsel right up until his death. He watched her deliver the response to the Autumn Statement from his hospital bed. She clearly models herself on him – even joking that they were both proud to have been famously labelled as “boring” politicians.
But it was clear that she and every Labour politician in the room are straining to have the chance that Darling and his generation had to sit at those ministerial tables and make those decisions, no matter how tough.
The difference, of course, is that Darling and co got to experience the highs of spending money and doing good before the lows came.
Starmer, Reeves, Rayner and this intake, if they win, will face the worst from the beginning. And that’s assuming a nice big fat majority. If the win is more marginal, then that will bring all kinds of additional pain.
The election campaign is going to be dirty and fought from the gutter. The Tories have raised the spending limits and will attract big money. Labour will come under intense, hostile scrutiny when it eventually reveals its tax and spending plans. Sunak is not going quietly. A sizeable percentage of powerful media figures, while not fans of Sunak, will rail against a Labour government.
Despite all of this, the quiet excitement and anticipation in the marquee after Darling’s funeral was palpable. Of course, there was great sadness – but this was a gathering of political animals from across the divide. There was a sense of knowing what lay ahead and yet running towards it. As the great and the good and the aspirant shared stories about Darling, the overriding lesson from his political life was just win – get in, work hard, be good, be focused, don’t arse about, and make change. The rest doesn’t matter.
Ayesha Hazarika was a senior Labour adviser to Harriet Harman and Ed Miliband
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