Ever since the massive but ineffective Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel last weekend, Britain, the United States and other allies have been urging Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to de-escalate and show restraint. As President Biden put it, Israel should just “take the win” of repelling the assault without loss of life – and with active help from what would once have been an unlikely alliance of the US, UK, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu has showily rejected that advice given to him face-to-face by British Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron and down the hotline by the president of the United States.
Overnight there were strikes at a military base in Isfahan – a historic former capital of Iran and a Unesco world heritage site but, more pertinently, also the location of a nuclear development site. There are further reports of limited strikes in Tabriz and on air defence systems in southern Syria.
This latest military action is probably best seen as a carefully calibrated – and initially successful – attempt by Netanyahu to preserve his position at the head of the Israeli government. He has pleased no one – Washington and Westminster continue to demand a pause in fighting while right wingers in the Israeli cabinet are urging all-out war against the Palestinians and their allies – but he has not provoked further attempts to denounce and unseat him.
The Government and Opposition here in the UK left it to those already booked on the morning round of interviews to give their first official reaction. There were no calls for an immediate parliamentary debate. Both Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary, and Matthew Pennycook, shadow housing minister, reiterated that Israel had a right to defend itself and urged restraint. Meanwhile an Iranian official informed Reuters that his country had no immediate plans to retaliate.
Restraint is urgently needed on all sides – but as this multi-faceted conflict progresses, the genuine fears that it could lead to a full scale war in the region may be receding. That is qualified good news but it is likely to leave the malign actors in place. As the war studies expert Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman noted days before the latest Israeli response: “These reciprocal attacks are symptoms of the underlying dispute between Iran and Israel, and will continue to occur. But they cannot lead to its resolution.”
The Middle East gave the world the idea of “an eye for an eye” retribution. It is part of the Hammurabi Code carved on a pillar unearthed in Iran dating back to 1700BC. It is cited in the Old Testament of the Bible and in the Roman era lex talionis. The people of the region know how to play this game.
So, without delving back through four thousand years of rights and wrongs, the Hamas terror attacks on Israel on 7 October last year ignited this latest round.
Hamas’s butchering, torture, rape, and abduction of civilians was grotesque. Then came the invasion of Gaza which has reportedly killed an unconscionable 33,000 Palestinians, the majority of them women, children and civilians. Iran’s proxies, the Houthis, attacked international shipping. On 1 April, Iran targeted 300 missiles directly on the territory of Israel.
In that context Israel’s attack last night may have been unwelcome, unwise and unnecessary in the view of the US and UK but it may also amount in practice to a de-escalation in present high tensions. The lack of rhetoric coming out of world capitals would suggest it is privately being seen that way.
The focus of world attention has shifted from Gaza to Iran, which is where Israeli governments have always wanted it. The Islamic regime makes existential threats against Jews and their state, urged on by Netanyahu; Trump as president torpedoed the Iran deal, which means that Iran now has an unfettered nuclear weapons programme. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed there was no damage last night to Iran’s nuclear sites. But Iran shows no sign of wanting to activate a war on Israel, as shown by the relatively low level activity of its proxy Hezbollah from Lebanon.
It suits Netanyahu to live on this knife edge. The challenge for the US and its allies now is to manage this seemingly eternal confrontation between Israel and Iran while not being diverted from demanding restraint from Israel in Gaza.
The US vetoed recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN this week. But the alliance to defend Israel must not be a green light to “finish the job” in overcrowded Rafah and to continue to obstruct aid going into Gaza. The potential trigger for an all-out war lies there and not in Iran.
Adam Boulton presents Sunday Morning on Times Radio
Netanyahu has Cameron and Biden exactly where he wants them
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19.04.2024
Ever since the massive but ineffective Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel last weekend, Britain, the United States and other allies have been urging Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to de-escalate and show restraint. As President Biden put it, Israel should just “take the win” of repelling the assault without loss of life – and with active help from what would once have been an unlikely alliance of the US, UK, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu has showily rejected that advice given to him face-to-face by British Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron and down the hotline by the president of the United States.
Overnight there were strikes at a military base in Isfahan – a historic former capital of Iran and a Unesco world heritage site but, more pertinently, also the location of a nuclear development site. There are further reports of limited strikes in Tabriz and on air defence systems in southern Syria.
This latest military action is probably best seen as a carefully calibrated – and initially successful – attempt by Netanyahu to preserve his position at the head of the Israeli government. He has pleased no one........
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