The politics of the Bahujan Samaj Party and Mayawati remains a mystery to many political analysts and journalists. At times, they over-simplify her actions relying on rumours and assumptions to fill in gaps. Mayawati’s political stand might appear unusual in the current context: Alliances have firmed up for the general elections but the BSP has chosen to go it alone.
Behen ji, as Mayawati is known among her supporters, is neither with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the INDIA group. Why did she take such a stand when it would have been easy to join an alliance, ensure some tickets for her party members and even perhaps, a respectable accommodation in the next government?
To answer this question, we must first stop imposing our expectations on the BSP and instead look at the political requirements of Mayawati and the party.
Joining either alliance may well have been politically fatal for Mayawati for two reasons. First, given the diminished stature of the BSP, politically and electorally, she would have had little bargaining power and been given too small a piece of the pie. Second, there may well be a genuine fear in the BSP leadership of losing their core vote base in an alliance. The transfer of such votes to alliance partners could do more harm than good in the long run.
Clearly, the BSP’s strategy in this election is to protect its voteshare and project its value as a result in the future. If Mayawati succeeds in doing so, she may enhance her position in the near future.
Also, enhancing of the BSP’s negotiating power through these elections is not centred around its own winnability. Rather, it is ensuring the defeat of others.
Another reason for Mayawati’s hesitation in joining an alliance in which the Samajwadi Party is dominant in UP is the socio-economic situation on the ground. The clash here is between the emerging OBC landed gentry and landless Dalit labourers who work on their land. Multiple studies have shown how the largest proportion of land transfers in independent India have been in favour of dominant OBC groups.
This economic scenario creates a constant tension between Dalit-led and OBC-led political groups. It is also the reason for the distance between the SP and BSP, despite the cordial personal relationship between Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati. The dynamic in UP shapes, for the BSP, its national outlook, including in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, etc.
For the BSP and its leader, this general election may well be an existential one. If the party’s vote base is further fragmented, Mayawati will be one step closer to political and electoral irrelevance. Hence, the attempt is to emerge as a third force in UP, where the party still commands considerable influence.
In my recent fieldwork, I have not heard any apprehension among rural Dalit voters about the BSP’s decision not to join an alliance. Many BSP local leaders explained to me that candidate selection was being done after consultation with the party cadre and that Behenji is keeping the social and political profile of the BSP candidates in mind during selection, based on feedback from the ground.
The major challenge for Mayawati in this election is “Brand Modi”, which has developed into a major force over the last decade, even in Dalit hamlets in UP. Another challenge for BSP and Mayawati is to engage with “conscious beneficiaries” who have come about as a result of the various schemes of the BJP and address the rising aspirations of Dalit communities. She will also need to respond to the more social justice-oriented plank of the Congress and SP.
The writer is director, G B Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad
Joining either NDA or INDIA may have been politically fatal for Mayawati
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24.04.2024
The politics of the Bahujan Samaj Party and Mayawati remains a mystery to many political analysts and journalists. At times, they over-simplify her actions relying on rumours and assumptions to fill in gaps. Mayawati’s political stand might appear unusual in the current context: Alliances have firmed up for the general elections but the BSP has chosen to go it alone.
Behen ji, as Mayawati is known among her supporters, is neither with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the INDIA group. Why did she take such a stand when it would have been easy to join an alliance, ensure some tickets for her party members and even perhaps, a respectable accommodation in the next government?
To answer this question, we must first stop imposing our expectations on the BSP and instead look at the political requirements of Mayawati and the party.
Joining either alliance may well have been politically fatal for Mayawati for two reasons.........
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