A California-related story amid the this month’s political sideshows in the nation’s capital (Congress bickering over whether to bundle repairs for a porous southern border with the pouring of more money into other nations’ wars; three presidents of elite American universities failing to forcibly denounce anti-Semitism at a congressional hearing): the surprise resignation of former House Speaker and Bakersfield native Kevin McCarthy.
McCarthy’s departure from Congress has at least two near-term ramifications as far as California politics are concerned.
First, there’s the question of a special election to determine McCarthy’s successor for the remainder of his term in one of California’s most reliably Republican districts.
But that’s assuming McCarthy vacates his seat before the third day of the new year (in which case California governor Gavin Newsom would have 14 days to set an election date). If McCarthy waits longer, per California’s election-overseeing secretary of state, Newsom has the option of leaving the seat empty all the way to next November’s election (given that Newsom finished below 37% in Bakersfield’s Kern County in last year’s gubernatorial vote, let’s assume he isn’t in a hurry to do any political favors in that red sliver of the Golden State).
And if there’s a special election? Keep an eye on two prominent local Republicans: former congressman Devin Nunes and state senator Shannon Grove (McCarthy’s endorsement will be key here).
The second ramification: with McCarthy out of the picture, national Republicans will be eager to defend vulnerable “red” congressional seats in the Golden State.
On the one hand, the number of California seats up for grabs in 2024 is too many (the Cook Political Report rates four California Republican-held seats as “toss ups”) and the GOP’s current House majority too little (Democrats have to flip only five seats to end their minority status) for national Republicans to snub imperiled West Coasters. But absent McCarthy’s fundraising prowess and his past presence as a mentor and protector of his fellow California Republicans, will those vulnerable incumbents get priority over similarly endangered Republicans? (The Cook Political Report’s other House GOP “toss ups” include five seats in New York; two seats in Arizona; and a seat apiece in Colorado, Louisiana, New Jersey and Oregon.)
All of that said, there may be a moral to Kevin McCarthy’s departure from Congress: fame and power are fleeting.
Keep in mind, most Americans (well, those who follow congressional politics) first took notice of McCarthy in 2010, on the brink of the Republicans’ takeover of the House and with the publication of a book entitled Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders featuring McCarthy and two other 40-something GOP members of Congress, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. (McCarthy’s tagline: “He is charged with recruiting fresh-thinking Republican candidates for upcoming elections and leads the Republican legislative effort to put forth a new governing agenda.”)
As it turns out, the “generation” failed to last beyond 13 years. Cantor was defeated in a 2014 primary in a David-slays-Goliath spectacle of an incumbent House majority leader felled by a Tea Party–backed economics professor (Cantor was the first sitting majority leader to suffer a primary loss since the position was invented in 1899).
Ryan lasted in the House longer than Cantor—his a more colorful journey that included running for vice president in 2012 (you might recall him being browbeaten by Joe Biden in a televised debate) and then chairing the House Ways and Means Committee before becoming House Speaker in October 2015 (Ryan having been implored to take the job in hopes on uniting a fractured GOP caucus).
But in April 2018, Ryan announced his political retirement, at age 48. His lament? Basically, that he was tired of being a Wisconsin wonk in King Donald’s court: “I’m an old Jack Kemp guy that believes strongly in inclusive, aspirational politics that are based on bringing people together and not exploiting divisions,” said the departing speaker. “With identity politics being played all around and 21st-century technology accelerating it, and putting gas on the fire—that is my big concern of politics these days. And that makes it harder to have political goodwill in this country because of all this polarization.”
That left the House with one remaining “gun”—Kevin McCarthy, who lasted five years beyond Ryan.
McCarthy’s saga is well chronicled by now: elected House Speaker earlier this year (on the 15th ballot, after four days of futile voting) and tasked with herding the slimmest GOP House majority in 20 years, only to be ousted from his leadership post by a rump caucus of disgruntled Republicans (dubbed the “we-just-hate-Kevin coalition”) determined to punish McCarthy for working with House Democrats to avoid a government shutdown. Whereas Eric Cantor was the first House majority leader to be “primaried,” McCarthy earned the dubious distinction of being the first House Speaker to be voted out of the job.
And for congressional Republicans? A “generation” of leadership first introduced to the public 13 years ago has left the stage—along with a promise of more responsible governing, according to Henry Olsen and this National Review column:
Under [the Young Guns’] leadership, government was supposed to get smaller in relative size, and our budget deficits were supposed to be shrinking. Instead, the federal government is ballooning, and our deficits have exploded. . . .
It’s clear that their indifference toward cultural issues meant they were out of touch with the intensifying focus of their voters. . . . They always seemed more comfortable talking about numbers (Ryan) or palling with business types (Cantor, McCarthy) than credibly taking on the cultural Left.
There’s another California angle to this story, and that would be the election of 1994—the last time Republicans dominated Golden State politics.
About that election: former governor Pete Wilson led at the top of the ticket, receiving 55% of the statewide vote. Other Republicans either returning to statewide office or securing a first term were Attorney General Dan Lungren, Treasurer Matt Fong, Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush, and Secretary of State Bill Jones. As with the “Young Guns” and a generation of national leaders, so too did California’s GOP seem set with a generation of strong candidates.
But what happened to those “Guns”? Lungren ran for the term-limited Wilson’s job in 1998 and was routed, while Fong failed to unseat then senator Barbara Boxer in the same election.
Quackenbush and Jones managed to win another four years in office. However, the insurance commissioner quit his post in July 2000 amid allegations that he’d used funds from a state-controlled earthquake fund for political purposes. In February 2002, the term-limited secretary of state finished a distant third in that year’s Republican gubernatorial primary (this was a decade before California enacted its current top-two “open” primary system).
In the 20 years since that election (2002 marking the first time that California Democrats claimed all statewide constitutional offices), California’s GOP has struggled to win a lone statewide office, much less instill “generational” change. Beginning with 2006, Republicans have won just two of 35 statewide constitutional races (in 2006, Steve Poizner was elected insurance commissioner and Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected as governor).
Where that leaves the present generation of California Republicans: two decades after beginning a new era of being almost entirely shut out of statewide office, searching for leaders and new path forward.
Time will tell if 20 years from now congressional Republicans find themselves in better political shape.
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