For the last three decades, Rajasthan politics has had two constants. First, the incumbents lost the election paving the way for the Opposition to form the government. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the elections in 1993, 2003 and 2013, whereas the Congress came to power in 1998, 2008, and 2018. Second, Ashok Gehlot of the Congress and Vasundhara Raje of the BJP have governed the state for the last 25 years. Gehlot has completed three terms as chief minister (CM) and Raje was elected to the office in 2003 and 2013.
This revolving door feature of Rajasthan politics has fascinated political observers, especially since the neighbouring states of Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Gujarat have seen a very different pattern of political competition despite having a similar bi-polar contest between the Congress and BJP. The Congress was in power in MP between 1993 and 2003, and the BJP has ruled the state since then except for a brief interlude in 2019. Gujarat has been a BJP state since 1995, except for a short period.
While it is beyond the scope of this piece to answer why Rajasthan is different from MP and Gujarat, a closer look at the state’s recent electoral history might help us to understand the choices voters are going to make on November 25.
Approximately 15% of the votes and 10% of seats are won by independents and smaller parties in Rajasthan’s bipolar polity. These independents have often been crucial for government formation as well as influential in tilting the balance in favour of one CM hopeful or the other. In 2018, the combined total of independent MLAs and MLAs from smaller parties was 27 in an assembly of 200. The Congress was four short of a majority and a large number of independents and the MLAs who had won on the Bahujan Samaj Party ticket rallied behind Gehlot. In this election too, several rebel candidates from both parties are in the fray as independents: Eleven from the BJP and seven from the Congress. The victorious rebels along with independent MLAs may hold the card if no party emerges as a clear victor.
Furthermore, the past trend has been that the BJP wins in Rajasthan with a big margin whereas the Congress barely manages to scrape through. The exception was in 1998 when the Congress won 45% of votes and 153 seats. The BJP recorded its lowest vote share (33%) and seat tally in that election. In 2013, the BJP won 163 seats with 45% of votes and the Congress ended up with its lowest vote and seat tally. The Congress formed the government in 2008 and 2018 with a wafer-thin majority whereas the BJP had a comfortable lead over the Congress in 2003 and 2013. This indicates that the BJP has a much wider vote pool in the state to draw from compared to the Congress. The Congress’s social base is also limited by its geographical reach. There are 54 seats in the state which the Congress has never won since 2008. In comparison, the BJP has not won 19 seats in the last three elections. Simply put, the Congress has a much harder task in winning a majority: It has to aim for a higher strike rate in the seats the party has won in the past.
Can Gehlot’s efforts to reach out to a wider section of society through a large bouquet of welfare schemes turn things around for the Congress? Or the factional feud with Sachin Pilot, despite the temporary truce, would remain a big roadblock? The pre-poll survey by Lokniti-CSDS in October indicates that the satisfaction level with the Congress government is above average and Gehlot leads the race among CM hopefuls by a wide margin. However, the satisfaction levels with the central government are higher than with the state government. Less than 30% of the respondents in the survey said Gehlot was their top-most choice for office. Also, the Congress did not seem to be drawing the bulk of votes even among the beneficiaries of several schemes. This should be a warning signal to all political parties who feel that election promises of distributing welfare close to elections would alone be enough to catapult them to victory. The Congress in Rajasthan may face the brunt of economic anxieties among the voters, especially within the bottom half of the social pyramid. It seems to be trailing behind the BJP in some key segments among which it had an advantage in the past elections: The BJP appears to be in close competition with the Congress among the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, and the party also has a substantial lead among the youth, rural and woman voters.
Thus, the emerging consensus among political observers is that the BJP may have a better chance given Rajasthan’s electoral history. But leaders are not constrained by historical burdens, they shape the course of history. Can Gehlot defy the weight of history and get his party re-elected? Gehlot is most likely to continue in office if his party wins, but his chances to become a four-term CM are most likely over if the Congress loses this assembly election. Similarly, the Raje era in state politics will be over if the BJP fails to win. However, even if the BJP wins it is also not clear if she will be the next CM. The key question for the future of Rajasthan politics is if these two constants are going to change on December 3.
Rahul Verma is fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi. The views expressed here are personal
In Rajasthan, a battle of two parties, two leaders
7
0
24.11.2023
For the last three decades, Rajasthan politics has had two constants. First, the incumbents lost the election paving the way for the Opposition to form the government. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the elections in 1993, 2003 and 2013, whereas the Congress came to power in 1998, 2008, and 2018. Second, Ashok Gehlot of the Congress and Vasundhara Raje of the BJP have governed the state for the last 25 years. Gehlot has completed three terms as chief minister (CM) and Raje was elected to the office in 2003 and 2013.
This revolving door feature of Rajasthan politics has fascinated political observers, especially since the neighbouring states of Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Gujarat have seen a very different pattern of political competition despite having a similar bi-polar contest between the Congress and BJP. The Congress was in power in MP between 1993 and 2003, and the BJP has ruled the state since then except for a brief interlude in 2019. Gujarat has been a BJP state since 1995, except for a short period.
While it is beyond the scope of this piece to answer why Rajasthan is different from MP and Gujarat, a closer look at the state’s recent electoral history might help us to understand the choices voters are going to make on November 25.
Approximately 15% of the votes and 10% of seats are won by........
© hindustantimes
visit website
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Andrew Mitrovica
Mort Laitner
Rami G Khouri
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Nikkei Editorial
