There is growing concern within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that its Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) is not keeping pace with the times. It means the questions about the centrality of ASEAN, which AOIP was meant to buttress, would have to be discussed afresh. There is awareness among ASEAN countries that the declining trust among countries and increasing geopolitical rivalries in the Indo-Pacific require AOIP to be developed into a more effective mechanism. This should be able to transform competition into cooperation and deficits of trust into mutual confidence, keeping in view the values and ambitions of ASEAN.
An AOIP Vision group of individuals from all ASEAN countries and its dialogue partners recently met in Bali and recognised that efforts to mainstream the AOIP have been slow so far. A cleavage between its strategic goals and the reality of its implementation requires ASEAN to build a more strategic approach to implement the goals of AOIP. ASEAN enunciated the AOIP in June 2019, led by Indonesia. However, since it is an ASEAN outlook, it is bound by the ASEAN consensus-based system to move forward. This is where ASEAN seems to be struggling whereas events in the Indo-Pacific have been precipitating rapidly.
The reality is that China and ASEAN are nowhere near concluding the code of conduct, which has been pending for more than two decades. China’s aggressive intent in the South China Sea has not abated; the impacted countries are reacting differently. Indonesia, under its chairmanship in 2023, held an ASEAN maritime exercise but not in the South China Sea. Vietnam, despite having major disputes with China, has a growing economic partnership with Beijing. While Malaysia and Brunei, the two other impacted countries, are rather quiet, the Philippines, under the new government of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, is closely aligned with the US and Japan to defend their interests from Chinese intrusions. So, it is not as if every ASEAN country is still taking its strategic goals on a common outlook.
Many of the ASEAN partners want the body to engage with them so that the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific remain free from China’s hegemonic control.
The conference brought clarity to a few issues. AOIP restated traditional ASEAN goals, keeping in view the developments in the Indo-Pacific. It is the role of ASEAN partners that has changed. ASEAN sees all partners as having legitimate interests in the area. Its own ability to influence the achievement of those interests remains subdued. The discussions at the conference showed there are many more miles to be covered if AOIP is to become effective.
ASEAN recognises that the Indo-Pacific is not an ASEAN construct. ASEAN always used the term, Asia-Pacific. However, ASEAN was an early adherent to the Indo-Pacific, even though the Chinese were critical of the term. Further, ASEAN seeks inclusive partnerships using AOIP with all its dialogue partners. AOIP has become part of ASEAN lore in which it engages with its dialogue partners and has agreements with most of them. ASEAN believes that AOIP has facilitated willing partners from the region, which could help it succeed. It believes that though only four areas are mentioned in AOIP, there is a confluence of interest in these, and therefore, implementation should be easier.
How is ASEAN going to develop this further? Indonesia, under its chairmanship in 2023, held the first ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum (AIPF). President Joko Widodo succeeded in getting eight other ASEAN leaders (Myanmar was not invited) to participate in the launch of AIPF, but it was largely an Indonesian effort. Now that Laos is the chairman, followed by Malaysia in 2025, it is unclear whether AIPF, which is seen as an implementing instrument of AOIP, would actually be carried by the subsequent chairs. A suggestion was that Indonesia should be encouraged, with the help of its partners, to continue AIPF and host it annually either in association with the chair or if facing reluctance, to do so by itself. Several partners may be ready to work on this with Indonesia.
India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) was seen as relevant. Now India and ASEAN have an AOIP-IPOI joint statement; Singapore and Indonesia have already agreed to collaborate with pillars of the IPOI while the Philippines and Vietnam are considering it. India is not nudging ASEAN to rush towards IPOI, but engaging them individually. This is perhaps the way for other partners, particularly Japan, Australia and India – to coordinate on how to deal with particular ASEAN countries on aspects of the AOIP pillars.
Gurjit Singh is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN, and the African Union. The views expressed are personal
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