Super Tuesday comes and goes and we inch closer to answering one of the most pressing questions in politics today: who will win the race for the US presidency?
Now, heaven forbid I should blow my own brass musical instrument here, but I might have found the answer, in an Oxfam shop in Glasgow of all places, and it only cost me £7.99.
That was the price, reduced from the original £25 (it’s that sort of charity shop), for a hardback copy of Becoming, by Michelle Obama. Contained within the pages of the former First Lady’s memoir are clues to whether she will replace the aged Joe Biden as the Democrat candidate and go on to become the 47th President of the US in her own right.
Haven’t you heard? Normally we would not detain ourselves here with internet scuttlebutt, but the possibility that Biden might reconsider his run for a second term is edging into the mainstream. Biden is not the only one at risk from such speculation. More than a few Republicans are hoping Trump will have enough at one point and decide to spend his time between trials on the golf course.
On Monday night’s Panorama, Justin Webb, a correspondent of 40 years’ standing and the BBC’s former North America editor, said there was a “real possibility” that neither Biden nor Trump would be their party’s candidates. The reasons in both cases: the physical and mental decline that their critics increasingly cite, despite both men’s insistence that all is well.
Adding to this were the “huge political pressures” on each candidate. It is not just Biden and Trump running on November 5. All 435 seats in the House are up for election, plus 33 Senate seats. Factor in the 13 governorships and assorted other positions in play, that’s a lot of hopeful politicians. If an increasing number of them feel their election prospects are being harmed rather than helped by Biden and Trump the pressure to replace the current frontrunners will mount.
On the same day that Panorama aired, The Wall Street Journal, a publication not known for its flibbertigibbet tendencies, published a poll with good news and bad for Biden. The cheery news: Americans were feeling better about the economy and their own prospects. The not-so-cheery: they were not queuing up to thank Biden. In the head-to-head question, 47% of those polled backed Trump for president and 45% Biden.
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In an editorial, the paper said Biden was in a “perilous position”, adding: “If the polls are this bad for Mr Biden in June or July, the pressure will rise for the President to do what’s best for the country and yield to a younger nominee.”
No one is saying who that younger nominee might be. Should Michelle Obama be keen to hear what UK bookies think, Oddschecker has cut her odds of winning the candidacy from 16/1 at the start of the year to 4/1.
It is not the first time Michelle Obama has been spoken of as a contender. Take a dive into the archives and you will find her being asked about, and denying, any political ambitions almost from the start.
It is worth noting that political analyst and senior CNN commentator David Axelrod, who helped Obama (the other one) win the presidency twice, said recently that the chance of Michelle becoming a candidate was on a par with him landing a guest spot with the Bolshoi Ballet. Michelle was a “conscript” to politics, said Axelrod. As far back as he could remember she was not interested in a political life.
Any hints in her memoir about future career moves? Have to say I am thoroughly enjoying Becoming. Initially, I thought it would be a touch too Oprah/Gwyneth/touchy-feely. While it is not without the odd moment, on the whole it is a wise, funny, enlightening read. Beautifully written too.
Frustratingly, there is nothing in the index about her running to be President. No “US elections 2024, my plans”. In fact, there isn’t even an index. That is not very helpful to any rumour-monger pressed for time.
She does refer to the many roles she has had in life, from lawyer and charity director to bride and “stressed-out new mother”, all the way up to becoming First Lady.
But so far there is zero suggestion she wants to be back in the thick of it politically. She would have to be mad to entertain the idea for a second. So the answer to the question posed at the start of this piece is I don’t know for certain who the next US President will be, but it won’t be Michelle Obama. Probably.
That the possibility is being discussed tells you a lot about the 2024 race. So far it is going according to a script straight out of Wacky Races. The two old men who most Americans do not favour for President could be a week or so away from securing the nominations.
That still leaves plenty of time till the conventions in July and August. Time for good men and women to come to the aid of their parties. I’m having trouble imagining that, though. It is not unknown for a likely candidate to rule themselves out early, LBJ being the prime example. Truman did it too.
Yet everything we know about Biden and Trump suggests there is no way they will go quietly, if at all. You don’t wait most of your life waiting to be President, like Biden, then walk after one term. Can anyone imagine Trump saying “Que sera, sera” as he is ushered off the stage to make way for someone else?
I’m going to take a leaf out of Becoming and be positive about the days and months ahead. Keep an open mind. Tomorrow Biden delivers his State of the Union address. It will be televised live, so no place for the incumbent to hide. It might calm the fears about his age, or stoke them.
Trump, newly buoyed by the Supreme Court’s ruling that states cannot take his name off the ballot paper, now hopes the court will make it a double win by declaring that a president is entitled to total immunity.
Oh that we could fast forward to a point in the future and read in their respective memoirs how everything turned out. For better, for worse? For now, I’m heading back into the happier and more comforting world of Becoming.
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