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It’s only the third month of the US presidential election year, and the topic of Russia keeps rearing its head.
It began after former Fox News-host Tucker Carlson made a pilgrimage to Moscow to interview Vladimir Putin.
Then, Donald Trump stunned many with the suggestion he’d encourage Russia, two-years into an invasion of Ukraine, to expand its attack and target NATO members.
Too smart to be manipulated by Russia: Elon Musk.Credit: AP
Then, billionaire Elon Musk, who has floated Kremlin-friendly peace plans, hosted a live discussion on Twitter with Republican senators discussing if the US should continue funding Ukraine’s defence against Russia.
In a matter of weeks, Moscow has somehow, improbably, re-inserted itself as a talking point into another US election cycle.
Similar to the 2016 election in which Trump was elected, Russia is working to subvert American politics and leadership. Unlike 2016, the goal isn’t simply to harass a candidate and discredit democracy in the global public’s eyes.
Today, Moscow’s goals are to unravel US resolve in supporting Kyiv.
“Russia does not have sufficient military capability to achieve its maximalist objectives if Ukraine’s will to fight persists alongside Western support,” writes the Institute for the Study of War think tank. “Degrading US decision-making is one of the few, possibly the only way, to narrow the gap between Russia’s goals and means in Ukraine.”
A suspect in the Crocus City Hall shooting on Friday is escorted to the Russian Investigative Committee headquarters in Moscow, Russia. Credit: AP
Kremlin-linked social media accounts now pushing claims that “the US, Ukraine, or a combination of both were involved” in the March 23 Moscow concert hall terror attack that killed 143 people, were only weeks ago hyping the US border issue to try to sway American domestic politics.
Those accounts discussed both the US-Mexico border and calls for Texas to leave the United States.
“As we head toward the US elections in [northern] autumn 2024, I expect these accounts to continue amplifying claims of US-backed instigations abroad and conversations surrounding divisive issues in US domestic politics,” Kyle Walter, head of research at Logically, a company that uses artificial intelligence to track disinformation, said.
Other ambient efforts by Russian sources are afoot too including what appears to be the creation of fictitious journalists in what The New York Times described as “protracted and elaborately constructed” narratives.
Russia’s focus on reaching American – and Western – minds since 2016 has also consolidated its influence on key American voices.
Years ago, an embrace of Russia’s narratives on US foreign policy appeared to be confined to the libertarian right and figures such as ex-congressman Ron Paul. By 2016, the year the Kremlin interfered in the US presidential election, Republicans in Congress were caught on tape speculating who among them Russia was paying.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures to people yelling from across the Rio Grande in Mexico as he visits the border in Eagle Pass, Texas, last month.Credit: AP
Now, even America’s friends are noticing the spell some Americans are under. Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott has commented “it seems that, at least in some quarters, we have a Putin fascination syndrome”.
Right-wing think tanks that once advocated a strong defence for the US and allies, have more recently advocated withdrawing aid for Ukraine.
Earlier, in December, newly sworn-in House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, explained: “The battle is for the [US-Mexico] border... We do that first as a top priority, and we’ll take care of these other obligations.”
That is, the Republicans are purposely looking away from Ukraine, closer to home.
Since 2016, when Russia first intervened in the US election, “what is ...new is a polarised Western public’s enthusiasm for re-centring its own identity around Moscow’s narratives,” writes historian Ian Garner, making them “an unwitting weapon in the information war”.
Influential but also more desperate: Russian President Vladimir Putin.Credit: AP
The border crisis, which while underpinned by surges of migrants and US political dysfunction, has at times driven the American political news cycle.
Yet focusing on borders and illegal immigration as a dominant issue is also part of a playbook established by Hungary, the most pro-Russia country in the EU.
Hungary’s strongman leader Viktor Orban has made blocking irregular immigration a signature issue for his party, Fidesz, in the process converting domestic fear of undocumented migrants into political support.
For Hungary, “the border” then became a kind of exportable political issue, which it promotes to willing audiences in liberal democracies through think tanks, symposiums and speakers – including to Washington and Canberra.
In a break with diplomatic protocol this month, Orban, a head of state, bypassed the White House to pay a personal visit to Trump at Mar-a-Lago, and endorse him.
“The greatest fight in international politics is between the globalists and those who believe in national sovereignty,” Orban, as he appeared to intervene into the sovereign politics of the US.
US ambassador to Hungary David Pressman observed: “Prime Minister Orban, who on one hand baselessly claims the United States government is trying to overthrow his government, publicly calls for the political defeat of the President of the United States.”
Hungary’s Viktor Orban and ex-US president Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago this month.Credit: Instagram
University College of London professor Andrew Wilson writes that: “Hungary and the USA are ... part of a triangle of disinformation about Ukraine, with Russian propaganda being reproduced in MAGA media for the election theme of Wall/Border 2.0.
“In 2016, Trump promised to build a wall on the border with Mexico, now he promises to concentrate on defending America’s border, not Ukraine’s.”
“Hungary has had the most impact on the immigration debate, and on the framing of ‘defending our border not Ukraine’s’” in the US political debate, Wilson says.
Meanwhile, the calls for Texas to secede or the US states to split apart “is more of a Russian fantasy”.
But such fantasies, along with conspiracy theories and grievances, have proven effective for mobilising Americans in elections before. Decisive themes feed into the broader disagreement in American politics.
US President Joe Biden: at odds with Russia - but also Hungary.Credit: AP
In part for that reason, when FBI Director Chris Wray was asked about the prospect of foreign election interference in February, he said what Americans needed to beware of was chaos.
“The ability to generate chaos is very much part of the playbook that some of the foreign adversaries engage in,” Wray said.
“And there is the potential. If we’re not all collectively on board that chaos can ensue to varying levels.”
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