With many Democrats freaking out about polling that shows President Joe Biden trailing or at best even with former President Donald Trump, it’s worth taking a step back and considering what’s meaningful about polls nearly a year before Election Day — and why they have so little predictive value.

Such a step back is especially useful in considering the bizarre findings of a New York Times/Siena survey which, among other things, found a group of voters who prefer Trump to Biden — but prefer Vice President Kamala Harris to both of them. How does that make sense, especially when most polls show she’s slightly less popular than Biden? 1

QOSHE - Polls Showing Biden Trailing Trump Don’t Mean Much Yet - Jonathan Bernstein
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Polls Showing Biden Trailing Trump Don’t Mean Much Yet

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21.11.2023

With many Democrats freaking out about polling that shows President Joe Biden trailing or at best even with former President Donald Trump, it’s worth taking a........

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