The latest inflation report, showing that price increases slowed in October, suggests that the US just might get the “immaculate disinflation” that everyone is hoping for: Inflation will fall to its pre-pandemic levels and remain there, and the US will avoid a recession. Allow me to make the pessimist’s case that we are not out of the woods yet.

I acknowledge that the sunnier view has a lot going for it. Optimism comes not only from the decline in actual inflation, but also from the decline in expectations of future inflation. Take a closer look, however, and it’s clear that some measures of expectations have not improved that much even as inflation has fallen. That means the situation is unstable and inflation could go back up again.

QOSHE - Inflation Could Come Back When You Least Expect It - Allison Schrager
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Inflation Could Come Back When You Least Expect It

7 0
21.11.2023

The latest inflation report, showing that price increases slowed in October, suggests that the US just might get the “immaculate disinflation” that everyone is........

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