The exit poll results of all five states, including for the northeastern state of Mizoram, are out. But unlike the exit polls of 2018, this time they are not unanimous about the winner. Of the six exit polls, four show that the ruling Mizo National Front of Chief Minister Zoramthanga is leading, while two polls have kept the main opposition party, Zoram People’s Movement, ahead in the race to form the next government. Interestingly, five exit polls, including the ABP-CVoter survey, also predicted the possibility of a hung assembly. Only one exit poll — Axis My India — predicted a clear mandate that ZPM would get more than a two-third majority in the new assembly.
The ABP-CVoter exit poll gave 15-21 seats to the MNF and 12-18 seats to the ZPM. It predicted 2-8 for the Congress and 0-5 seats for the Others (here others mostly include the BJP). If the average is taken out, the numbers for MNF, ZPM, Congress and Others stand out as 18, 15, 5 and 2, respectively. The three other exit polls — Times Now-ETG, India TV-CNX and Republic-Matrize — also gave an edge to the MNF but are doubtful whether it will be able to get the majority or not.
So, why are the exit polls giving the MNF an edge but are shy of giving the majority mark?
The MNF is getting an edge as there is a perception that the Manipur violence, which has affected the Kuki-Zomi people considered ethnic brethren by the Mizos of Mizoram, would have played a major role in deciding the mandate. It is true that the violence is a crucial issue in the state, which has been hosting more than 12,000 Kuki-Zomi refugees from Manipur. That’s the reason the MNF, founded on the principles of Mizo nationalism, tried to utilise this issue to beat the anti-incumbency. According to the exit polls, it seems it has been somehow successful.
Another fact that seems to be helping the ruling party is that it is ahead in the rural areas organisationally.
But the MNF falling short of the majority shows that anti-incumbency is visible. After all, basic issues like unemployment and lack of development were also dominant issues that resonated with the voters. Importantly, the crucial factor that played a major role in MNF’s return to power after ten years in the state was the promise to implement Socio-Economic Development Policy, which promises to give Rs 3 lakh to needy families. But even the state government accepted that this policy wasn’t implemented properly in the last five years. So, this is likely to be an important issue that is definitely going to affect MNF’s prospects in the state. The promise to implement SEDP was one of the main factors behind MNF's spectacular performance in the rural belt in the last elections. It got 12 out of 19 seats in the rural belt.
Assembly Elections 2023 Results: FULL COVERAGE ON ABPLIVE
ZPM Very Much In The Race
All the exit polls, barring the Republic-Matrize, are unanimous that ZPM is going to perform well in terms of seats tally and vote percentage. Although Axis My India gave a clear majority to the ZPM, the other exit polls avoided doing the same. One of the reasons acting against the ZPM is that it remains relatively weak in rural seats, particularly in the seats influenced by the ethnic minorities of the South region.
However, the ZPM’s focus on socio-economic issues and the promise to bring a real change in the state, which has been witnessing Congress and MNF governments since 1987, is likely to get support from the youth affected by unemployment in the last five years of MNF government. The party is likely to do well in the urban seats — there are 21 urban seats in the state. Of the 8 seats it won last time, 7 were urban seats. In the last elections, ZPM was runner-up in 9 seats — and of these, 4 were rural seats, despite the fact that the party was weak in the rural belt.
It has to be mentioned that the ZPM was a new party during the last elections and was mostly concentrated in the Aizawl region. But five years later, the party has been able to expand its strength beyond the Aizawl region and this became evident when it was able to sweep the Lunglei Municipal Council polls. The council falls under the South region, where the ZPM failed to win any seat in the last elections. It is due to all these reasons that despite 4 out of 6 exit polls favouring MNF, ZPM still remains very much in the race to capture power.
ALSO READ | What Exit Poll Results Tell Us Ahead Of Assembly Elections 2023 Verdict. 5 Key Takeaways
Why Exit Polls Predicting A Dismal Performance By BJP?
Unlike in 2018, when the BJP contested 39 out of 40 seats, this time the party contested only on 23 seats to focus only on those seats where it could perform well. The target seats are of course those either dominated or influenced by ethnic minorities. This time, the party saw some high profile joinings. Former state assembly speaker Lalrinliana Sailo, former state minister K Beichhua and former Chief Executive Member of Chakma Autonomous District Council Durjya Dhan Chakma — all from the ruling MNF — joined the BJP and got tickets.
However, most of the exit polls have predicted that the BJP is likely to get seats ranging from 0 to 2. The exception is the ABP-CVoter, which predicted that the Others are likely to get 0-5 seats. Obviously, Others mostly include the BJP candidates, apart from some Independents. One of the reasons behind the exit polls predicting a dismal performance by the saffron party is the Manipur factor. Another reason is the last-moment cancellation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election rally. Modi cancelling the rally was a shock to the party workers and supporters — and this definitely affected their morale.
It’s true that the Manipur violence is a factor, and that is going to work against the BJP. But it has to be kept in mind that the seats targeted by the party have a sizeable non-Mizo votes. The seats where the party is really hopeful to do well are the five seats of the South — Palak, Siaha, Thorang, West Tuipui and Tuichawng — and the three North seats of Mamit, Hachhek and Dampa. Despite the dismal prediction of the party by most of the exit polls, the saffron party has high chances mostly in Palak, Siaha, Tuichawng and also in Mamit.
The author is a political commentator.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
MNF Or ZPM? Why Mizoram Exit Polls Are Not Unanimous On The Winner
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03.12.2023
The exit poll results of all five states, including for the northeastern state of Mizoram, are out. But unlike the exit polls of 2018, this time they are not unanimous about the winner. Of the six exit polls, four show that the ruling Mizo National Front of Chief Minister Zoramthanga is leading, while two polls have kept the main opposition party, Zoram People’s Movement, ahead in the race to form the next government. Interestingly, five exit polls, including the ABP-CVoter survey, also predicted the possibility of a hung assembly. Only one exit poll — Axis My India — predicted a clear mandate that ZPM would get more than a two-third majority in the new assembly.
The ABP-CVoter exit poll gave 15-21 seats to the MNF and 12-18 seats to the ZPM. It predicted 2-8 for the Congress and 0-5 seats for the Others (here others mostly include the BJP). If the average is taken out, the numbers for MNF, ZPM, Congress and Others stand out as 18, 15, 5 and 2, respectively. The three other exit polls — Times Now-ETG, India TV-CNX and Republic-Matrize — also gave an edge to the MNF but are doubtful whether it will be able to get the majority or not.
So, why are the exit polls giving the MNF an edge but are shy of giving the majority mark?
The MNF is getting an edge as there is a perception that the Manipur violence, which has affected the Kuki-Zomi people considered ethnic brethren by the Mizos of Mizoram, would have played a major role in deciding the mandate. It is true that the violence is a crucial issue in the state, which has been hosting more than 12,000 Kuki-Zomi refugees from Manipur. That’s the reason the MNF, founded on the........
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